A leading member of Nigeria’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has advised President Bola Tinubu and Kwara State Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq to prioritize electoral viability over sentiment when considering the party’s 2027 governorship ticket. Professor Abubakar Suleiman, the Director-General of the National Institute for Legislative and Democratic Studies (NILDS), issued the caution amid internal discussions on zoning the ticket to Kwara North.
Suleiman acknowledged that zoning or power rotation is a recognized strategy for managing diversity in Kwara State, which is divided into three senatorial districts. He noted that calls from Kwara North for the ticket align with a broader demand for inclusivity and political equilibrium. However, he stressed that such decisions must be grounded in a rigorous assessment of electoral factors.
“I do not oppose zoning or power rotation, and I comprehend the demands from those who assert it is their turn. However, the pivotal question is how zoning correlates with electoral success,” Suleiman stated via his social media platforms.
He explained that political parties typically base such critical choices on quantifiable elements, including voter demographics, existing political structures, and historical voting patterns. Suleiman warned that zoning to a zone where the party lacks a competitive edge could undermine its prospects. “No political party is willing to risk zoning to an area where it does not perceive a competitive edge,” he said.
The NILDS Director-General referenced the 2023 general elections as a cautionary tale. He pointed out that the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) made strategic errors with its zoning choices, resulting in unfavorable outcomes. According to Suleiman, the PDP has since adjusted its strategy, shifting its focus back to Kwara Central to maximize electoral gains.
His comments come in response to appeals from stakeholders in Kwara North, who argue that allocating the governorship to their region would promote fairness. Suleiman characterized these appeals as valid but insisted they must be weighed against the overarching objective of securing electoral victory. He cautioned that decisions driven primarily by sentiment or a perceived sense of duty, rather than data-driven analysis, could expose the APC to unnecessary risks.
Suleiman urged the party’s national leadership, including the President and the state governor, to conduct a thorough analysis of the state’s political landscape before finalizing any decision. “It would be perilous to adopt a stance that does not position the party advantageously for victory,” he stated.
The APC’s approach to the 2027 governorship ticket in Kwara will be closely watched, as it balances internal pressure for rotational justice with the pragmatic need to retain the state’s executive seat. Suleiman’s intervention underscores a critical debate within the party: whether equity or electoral calculus should be the primary driver in the selection process. The eventual decision is expected to significantly influence the party’s strategy and cohesion in the state leading up to the next election cycle.
