Crude oil prices surged above $112 per barrel on Saturday, marking an eight-month high, as escalating tensions between Iran, the United States, and Israel entered their third week. The rise directly intensified pressure on Nigeria’s domestic fuel market, with petrol prices climbing at pumps across the country.
Brent crude futures rose 3.26% day-on-day to $112.20 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate increased 2.80% to $98.23. The upswing follows a breakdown in ceasefire discussions among the conflicting parties, stoking fears of broader regional disruption to supply chains.
Geopolitical developments continued to unfold. Former U.S. President Donald Trump suggested on his Truth Social platform a potential “winding down” of U.S. military actions in the Middle East, though this appeared to have little immediate effect on Iran’s posture. Iranian forces fired missiles at the remote British overseas territory of the Chagos Islands, a move reported by Iran’s Mehr news agency. This action followed British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s approval for the U.S. to use UK bases for potential strikes against Iran. Ahead of the missile launch, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had warned Starmer that such cooperation endangered British citizens.
The global price surge is having immediate consequences in Africa’s largest economy. Dangote Refinery, Nigeria’s major domestic processor, raised its ex-depot fuel price for the fourth time this year to ₦1,245 per litre. Subsequently, independent petroleum marketers in Abuja increased retail petrol prices to between ₦1,331 and ₦1,430 per litre. The increases underscore Nigeria’s continued vulnerability to international oil price volatility, a situation exacerbated by the removal of longstanding fuel subsidies and a reliance on imported refined products despite the new domestic refinery’s operations.
The confluence of military escalation and rising fuel costs presents a significant economic challenge for Nigeria, where transportation and production costs are tightly linked to petroleum prices. Without a de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, upward pressure on crude oil is expected to persist, likely translating into further domestic price adjustments. The situation highlights the direct channel through which distant geopolitical conflicts can impact African consumer markets and household budgets.
