A political analyst has warned that Nigeria’s current political trajectory could lead to a one-party dominant system under the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), posing significant risks to democratic governance and raising echoes of past military interventions.
Aminu Rabiu, in an interview with the Media Talk Africa, highlighted a wave of defections from opposition parties to the APC as evidence of an unprecedented consolidation of power. He noted that while Nigeria is constitutionally a multi-party state, the recent migration of politicians—including a large majority of state governors—to the APC suggests a shift toward singular dominance.
The analyst contrasted this with even Nigeria’s military era, recalling that former ruler Ibrahim Babangida oversaw a two-party system in 1993. “Even under military rule, two parties existed side by side. So why not under democracy?” Rabiu questioned.
He argued that a weakened opposition erodes essential checks and balances, reducing transparency and accountability. The main opposition, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), has been hampered by internal crises and legal battles following its 2015 electoral defeat. While a new coalition, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), is emerging as an opposition platform, Rabiu alleged that state institutions are being leveraged to target opposition figures, citing cases involving Nasir El-Rufai and Abubakar Malami as examples.
Rabiu stressed that an unchecked executive branch can foster corruption and undermine democratic principles. He drew direct historical parallels, referencing the First Republic where the dominance of the Northern People’s Congress contributed to the 1966 coup, and the Second Republic where the National Party of Nigeria’s alleged suppression of opposition preceded the 1983 military takeover. “This kind of political environment can create a fertile ground for military intervention,” he stated.
The analyst also warned of immediate consequences, including widespread voter apathy in future elections like the 2027 polls, as citizens may perceive outcomes as predetermined. With an estimated 30 to 31 of Nigeria’s 36 governors now in the APC, the scale of consolidation is “unprecedented,” he said.
Rabiu called for urgent measures to counter the trend, advocating for robust civic education, strengthened civil society engagement, and heightened international attention to preserve Nigeria’s democratic space. He emphasized that a viable, multi-party system remains critical for stable and accountable governance in Africa’s most populous nation.
