The White House has cautioned staff against using non-public information related to the Iran conflict to trade on financial markets, according to multiple reports citing unnamed administration officials. The warning, issued by the White House Management Office on March 24, follows unusual spikes in trading activity ahead of major policy announcements by President Donald Trump.
Federal employees are already prohibited from gambling on government property, and ethics regulations forbid using non-public information for personal gain. However, recent market activity has raised concerns about potential insider trading. On March 23, shortly before Trump announced a five-day pause in planned strikes on Iranian infrastructure, futures markets saw a surge in trading. More than $760 million in oil futures contracts reportedly changed hands in under two minutes.
Prediction markets have also come under scrutiny. Reports indicate that three Polymarket accounts collectively earned over $600,000 by correctly predicting the timing of this week’s ceasefire with Iran. In January, an unknown trader reportedly made about $410,000 after betting on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Users in Israel have also placed bets on Iranian missile strikes on Israeli territory, with some attempting to influence related reporting to affect betting outcomes.
Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal has criticized prediction markets for turning geopolitical events into “casino-like” activities. He warns they could enable insider trading and leaks of sensitive information. In March, Blumenthal introduced legislation to curb fraud and abuse in fast-growing prediction markets, proposing regulatory guardrails for platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt.
Earlier this month, Polymarket issued an apology after public backlash over allowing bets on whether American airmen from a downed US fighter jet would be rescued from Iran.
While there is no evidence of leaks or misuse of insider information within the administration, officials described the recent email as a timely reminder amid heightened scrutiny of large market trades linked to geopolitical developments.
