Europe is sliding into a fuel crisis as a global supply shock, triggered by the US-Israeli attack on Iran, drives up diesel and jet fuel prices and sparks protests across the continent. The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz—a vital artery for global energy shipments—has sent oil prices above $120 a barrel, with diesel and kerosene emerging as the most vulnerable fuel types.
While crude prices dipped below $100 a barrel after a two-week US-Iran ceasefire was announced on April 7, they remain well above pre-war levels. Diesel and jet fuel have borne the brunt of the price surge, with Europe’s benchmark diesel and jet fuel prices climbing above $200 per barrel equivalent—more than double their January levels.
The EU’s refining system produces a different fuel mix than the market demands, leaving the bloc structurally short of diesel. A barrel of crude typically yields 40-50% gasoline but only 30-40% diesel and jet fuel combined. Decades of tax policies that favored diesel over gasoline have further skewed consumption toward the fuel, deepening the supply gap. As a result, diesel has traded above gasoline prices at the pump in several EU countries, with prices exceeding €2 per liter—roughly $8.80-$10.50 per US gallon—in multiple states.
The price spike has hit sectors most dependent on diesel, particularly agriculture and road freight. Ireland has become the most visible flashpoint, with nationwide fuel protests led by farmers, truckers, and transport workers disrupting supply chains and transport networks. Blockades have strained fuel distribution, causing queues at petrol stations and some running dry amid panic buying. The government has deployed the army to clear the blockades.
Airports across Europe could face “systemic” jet fuel shortages within three weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, according to an industry warning to the European Commission. Some airports have already experienced shortages without officially reporting them. Ryanair, Europe’s largest airline by passenger numbers, has begun reducing flights to popular destinations, with CEO Michael O’Leary warning that the airline may not be able to run its full summer schedule if the disruption continues.
Governments in Italy, Portugal, Slovenia, Hungary, Spain, Poland, and Ireland have introduced tax cuts and other measures to limit the impact of rising fuel costs, but the crisis underscores Europe’s vulnerability to global energy shocks and the urgent need for alternative supply routes and energy security strategies.
