Nigeria has avoided significant energy shortfalls amid Middle East unrest thanks to the strategic investment by the Dangote Group in a massive new refinery, according to the World Bank. In a recent interview, World Bank President Ajay Banga praised the 650,000-barrel-per-day facility for boosting Nigeria’s energy security and enabling it to supply aviation fuel to neighbouring countries, even as global oil prices surged by 50% following the outbreak of conflict.
Banga described the refinery as a prime example of how targeted infrastructure investment can shield a country from external shocks. “Nigeria should be breathing a sigh of relief,” he said, noting that the project has not only met domestic demand but also positioned the country as a regional supplier during a period of heightened global instability.
The conflict in the Middle East, which has disrupted supplies of oil, gas, fertiliser, helium, and other commodities, threatens to slow global growth by up to 1 percentage point if it persists. Inflation in emerging markets could rise by as much as 0.9 percentage points, with the World Bank now forecasting 2026 growth in these economies at just 2.6% under a prolonged-war scenario. For Nigeria, the refinery’s output has helped cushion the impact of soaring energy costs and supply chain interruptions.
Banga also warned that developing countries with high debt and limited fiscal space must avoid unsustainable energy subsidies, even as they seek to manage rising costs. The World Bank is working with vulnerable nations—including small island states—to activate crisis-response funding without further straining public finances.
The remarks underline the importance of energy self-sufficiency in an era of geopolitical volatility, with Nigeria’s experience offering a model for other resource-dependent economies seeking resilience against global shocks.
