The 2026 NFL draft is shaping up to be dominated by quarterback selections early on, with Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza projected to go first overall to the Raiders. Alabama’s Ty Simpson is also expected to be selected in the first round, likely toward its conclusion.
Beyond those two, the outlook for other quarterback prospects becomes significantly less certain. Analysts and scouts agree that the next tier of quarterbacks—LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, Penn State’s Drew Allar, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, Miami’s Carson Beck, and Arkansas’ Taylen Green—are unlikely to hear their names called until the later rounds, if at all.
Nussmeier, once considered a potential first-round pick, saw his stock decline during his final season at LSU, where injuries and an increased sack rate raised concerns. His performance has shifted expectations toward a mid-round selection. Allar, despite solid career passing numbers at Penn State, struggled early in 2025 before a season-ending ankle injury, leaving questions about his readiness for the NFL. Klubnik’s disappointing season at Clemson has pushed him further down draft boards, with some projections placing him into Day 3.
Beck’s decision to transfer from Georgia to Miami and lead the Hurricanes to the national championship game likely bolstered his draft profile, but most analysts still view him as a mid-round prospect. Green, meanwhile, turned heads at the NFL Scouting Combine with elite athleticism—posting a 4.36-second 40-yard dash and a 43.5-inch vertical jump, the best ever recorded by a quarterback. However, his college passing production, spread over four seasons at Boise State and Arkansas, was inconsistent, tempering excitement about his pro potential.
While it is possible that one team could surprise the draft community by selecting one of these quarterbacks earlier than anticipated, the prevailing expectation is that the quarterback run will slow considerably after Simpson, leaving the rest of the class to wait well into the later rounds before their names are called.
