Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other OPEC+ members announced on Sunday an increase of 188,000 barrels per day to their collective oil‑production quota for June. The decision follows an online meeting of Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia and Saudi Arabia and is presented as part of “the collective commitment to support oil‑market stability,” according to an OPEC+ statement.
The increase comes after the United Arab Emirates withdrew from the alliance on Friday, three days after it announced its intention to quit. The statement made no reference to the UAE’s departure, a silence that Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon said reflects the tense relations inside the cartel. Analysts had anticipated the 188,000‑bpd rise, which mirrors the 206,000‑bpd hikes announced in March and April after subtracting the UAE’s share.
León interpreted the move as an effort to “act as if nothing has happened,” downplaying internal fractures while projecting continuity. However, the raised quota may have limited effect on actual output, which already runs below the set limits.
Much of OPEC+’s untapped reserves lie in the Gulf, but exports are constrained by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, imposed in response to the U.S.–Israeli strikes that triggered the war in Ukraine on 28 February. The blockade hampers shipments from Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the latter’s production no longer counting towards OPEC quotas.
“While output is increasing on paper, the real impact on physical supply remains very limited given the Strait of Hormuz constraints,” Leon told AFP. “This is less about adding barrels and more about signalling that OPEC+ still calls the shots.” Priya Walia of Rystad Energy added that total OPEC+ output with quota fell to 27.68 million bpd in March, against a monthly quota of 36.73 million bpd – a shortfall of roughly 9 million bpd driven chiefly by war‑related disruptions rather than voluntary cuts.
Iran, another OPEC+ member, is not subject to production quotas and now faces a U.S. retaliatory blockade on its exports. Russia, the alliance’s second‑largest producer, has benefited from higher oil prices but struggles to meet its quota due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and attacks on its facilities by Ukrainian drones.
The UAE’s exit is viewed as significant by market observers. Kpler analyst Amena Bakr described it as “a big deal,” noting that earlier withdrawals by Qatar in 2019 and Angola in 2023 had less impact. ADNOC, the state‑owned UAE oil company, plans to raise output to five million barrels per day by 2027, far above its current quota of about 3.5 million bpd, and has pledged $55 billion for new projects over the next two years.
The departure raises concerns that other members, such as Iraq and Kazakhstan, could follow if compliance disputes intensify. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and logistical bottlenecks in the Gulf will likely shape OPEC+’s ability to influence global oil markets in the coming months.
