Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other OPEC+ members announced on Sunday an increase of 188,000 barrels per day to their collective oil‑production quota for June. The move follows the United Arab Emirates’ abrupt withdrawal from the alliance on Friday, three days after it announced the decision.
The quota hike was confirmed in a statement issued after an online meeting of Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia and Saudi Arabia. The communiqué did not mention the UAE’s exit, a silence noted by Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon as indicative of strained relations within the group.
The additional 188,000 barrels per day matches the increases OPEC+ rolled out in March and April, after subtracting the output previously allocated to the UAE. Leon said the decision “acts as if nothing has happened, deliberately downplaying internal fractures and projecting stability.”
Despite the announced increase, actual output is expected to remain below the new limit. Much of the spare capacity of OPEC+ members lies in the Gulf, where exports are constrained by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade was imposed in response to the U.S.–Israeli strikes that triggered the conflict in February. Leon described the quota adjustment as a “two‑layer message” aimed at reassuring markets that the UAE’s departure will not disrupt OPEC+ operations, even though physical supplies are limited by the Hormuz bottleneck.
Rystad Energy’s Priya Walia noted that total OPEC+ production fell to 27.68 million bpd in March, well short of the 36.73 million bpd quota, a gap of roughly 9 million bpd caused mainly by war‑related disruptions rather than voluntary cuts. Iran, an OPEC+ participant not bound by quotas, is now the target of a U.S. retaliation blockade.
Russia, the alliance’s second‑largest producer, has benefited from higher prices but struggles to meet its own quota amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and attacks on its oil facilities. Meanwhile, the UAE’s departure is seen as a significant loss for OPEC+. Kpler analyst Amena Bakr described the withdrawal as “a big deal,” noting that the United Arab Emirates has invested heavily in oil infrastructure and that state‑owned ADNOC aims to raise output to five million bpd by 2027, well above its current quota of about 3.5 million bpd. ADNOC also announced a $55 billion investment plan for new projects over the next two years.
The developments raise concerns that other members, such as Iraq and Kazakhstan, could consider leaving after repeated accusations of exceeding their quotas. The OPEC+ secretariat has not indicated any further changes, but the alliance’s ability to coordinate production amid geopolitical tension remains a key factor for global oil market stability.
