Nigeria is desperate for safety. The nation’s mood has shifted, and the Senate just gave the green light to a bill that would create state police forces across the country. After decades of agitation, the upper chamber voted to establish a parallel policing system that would run alongside the existing federal Nigeria Police Force. Under the proposed law, each state would have a Commissioner of Police appointed by the governor and confirmed by the state assembly. The governor could issue written policy directives on public safety and order. The bill now heads to the House of Representatives, then to at least 24 state assemblies for ratification.
I have spent my career arguing for federalism and for police controlled by the states. I campaigned for this. But today, I am frightened. The safeguards written into the bill—including a ban on arresting people for criticizing the government—sound good on paper. But the evidence of potential abuse is overwhelming.
The core problem is simple: who decides who the “bad boys” are? In the minds of many state governors, the bad boys fall into two groups. First, any politician who dares to challenge the governor or his chosen successor. Second, anyone who criticizes the governor or questions his actions. Over the years, journalists and civil society activists have been thrown into detention for speaking truth to power—and that happened without governors having a police force under their total control. Give them that control, and I am convinced most governors would jail every enemy they could find.
The late Abubakar Tsav, a retired police commissioner, warned in 2018 that state police would mark the beginning of the country’s disintegration. He argued that governors would use the force against political opponents, and that state and federal commands would work at cross-purposes. His warnings ring louder today.
Nigeria is deeply divided along ethnic and religious lines. Many governors already lean one way in the pastoralist-farmer conflicts that have torn through states. Give them their own police, and they could use it to expel or protect entire communities based on identity. That is a recipe for deeper crisis. As Tsav put it: “Our politicians are not civilised enough and tolerant of opposing views.”
Some argue that the current Nigeria Police Force is already a puppet of the president, so state police could serve as a counterweight. I disagree. Federal institutions are generally more even-handed than state-level ones. The separation of powers at the federal level—between the executive, legislature, and judiciary—provides real checks. The National Assembly can call the Inspector General of Police to order. No state assembly can do the same to a governor’s police chief.
Yes, the current police structure is deeply flawed. Too much of the budget stays at headquarters, leaving state commands starved of resources. Those commands often become dependent on governors who give them money in exchange for loyalty. But that problem is fixable. A fully state-controlled police force is not.
The real issue is that 150,000 of Nigeria’s 350,000 police officers are assigned to VIP protection instead of routine policing. Every Inspector General has promised to stop this practice. Every one has failed. President Tinubu should start by withdrawing police from unauthorized VIPs and putting them where they are needed. That is a practical step. Handing governors their own police forces is a leap into darkness.
