WASHINGTON – Vicki Schwartz cast her first Ohio ballot for JD Vance. Now, she’s torn. The 70-year-old suburban Columbus resident, a former California teacher, read Vance’s “Hillbilly Elegy” and is deep into his latest book. She liked his recent appearance on “The View.” But if both Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio seek the Republican nomination in 2028, she’s conflicted. “I kind of feel like they should flip a coin,” she said while attending a Trump rally on the National Mall. An endorsement from the president would settle it for her, she added.
But Trump isn’t tipping his hand. Behind the scenes, the president has been polling aides and allies on who they prefer—Vance or Rubio. Nearly a dozen sources close to the White House, speaking anonymously, say Trump isn’t sold on Vance as his successor. He’s been asking pointed questions, treating the decision like a season of “The Apprentice.” One insider said Trump feels he has time to decide.
Vance, for his part, insists he’s focused on the vice presidency and the midterms. “I don’t think that you should be thinking so much about a job you could have years down the road,” he told USA TODAY. Yet he’s laying groundwork: a new book, “Communion,” and high-profile interviews tied to Iran peace talks. In the book, he proposes state-level bans on businesses opening on holidays like Thanksgiving—a rare policy split from Trump that could appeal to independents. He also supports workers’ rights to unionize, another area where he diverges from the president.
Vance’s early performance is winning fans. Nasim Nabily, a business owner from Landover, Maryland, called him “more articulate” than Trump and policy-savvy. But many voters, like 18-year-old Logan Hottell from Virginia, know little beyond his Marine background and “Hillbilly Elegy.” Vance’s team hasn’t polled in early states or organized for a run, and GOP strategists say his incumbency gives him a long runway. “He can wait longer than anyone else,” said Mike DuHaime, a former RNC political director.
Still, Rubio is a formidable contender. A May Emerson College poll showed them in a statistical tie: 36% for Vance, 35% for Rubio. Trump has publicly joked about the matchup, once asking a crowd, “Who likes JD Vance? Who likes Marco Rubio?” before adding, “That does not mean you have my endorsement.” The president is weighing who has the best chance of winning, sources say, and Rubio’s foreign policy experience and 2016 campaign history give him an edge.
Vance’s role in Iran negotiations is a double-edged sword. Trump praised his performance but quipped that if the deal fails, it’s Vance’s fault. A bad outcome could be a political death knell, one source warned. Meanwhile, Rubio has signaled he’ll stay in his role through Trump’s term and won’t run if Vance does, but insiders say his actions—like taking the White House podium in May—suggest otherwise.
Other names are circulating, including Senator Ted Cruz. But for now, the MAGA base is watching. Retired real estate agent Paul Ayers, 73, a Trump backer from Phoenix, said both candidates are “excellent” but suspects Vance has the organizing edge. “I think I’m going to go with Vance no matter what,” he said.
Vance says he’ll consult his wife after the midterms before deciding. “I just haven’t really thought that much about it,” he told USA TODAY. But the clock is ticking. As GOP strategist Matt Gorman noted, Trump’s pick of Vance as running mate was a de facto endorsement—but “I don’t expect, candidly, Trump to, the day after the midterms, anoint Vance.”
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