South Africa’s homicide statistics remain a cause for concern, as over 27,000 people were murdered from April 2022 to March 2023, possibly the highest recorded number in a single year. The murder rate in 2022/23 is 46 per 100,000, a considerable increase from the 36 per 100,000 rate from 2016/17, the year before Bheki Cele became Minister of Police. The country’s last population census was in 2011, making murder rates hard to calculate with confidence.
While many reasons have contributed to worsening homicide numbers, including declining police numbers, violent organized crime, proliferation of firearms, and a worsening economy in the country’s most populous provinces, it is promising to see some provinces making improvements. The Western Cape, one of the most violent provinces, has experienced improvements, with the number of homicides during the last quarter being considerably lower than last year’s. Over the past decade, the province’s murder rate has increased from just under 45 per 100,000 to 60 per 100,000.
The provincial government in Western Cape appears to have played a significant role in the improvements. Cape Town Mayco Member for Safety and Security JP Smith highlights that the City has invested heavily in its enforcement and emergency services for the past 15 years, and in 2019, with the Western Cape Government, commenced the Law Enforcement Advancement Plan to deploy officers in some of the worst crime-affected suburbs.
While improvements in the Western Cape are positive news, South Africa still ranks second in the world for its high homicide rate, and there remains much work to be done towards a safer country. Nevertheless, the Western Cape’s success story provides hope for other provinces to emulate similar strategies to help to bring down homicide and crime rates.
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