The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) has warned that Canada will fail to achieve its net-zero emissions goal by 2050 unless additional actions are taken beyond those already underway. In its annual report, the CER presented three scenarios surrounding Canada’s ambitious target, emphasizing the need for further efforts to combat climate change.
While Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has implemented a carbon tax and plans to introduce regulations to reduce emissions from various sectors, the report highlights the challenges of cutting emissions on a national scale in the face of global warming.
“It’s a very ambitious and challenging goal to meet for Canada,” commented CER Chief Economist Jean-Denis Charlebois. “Every industry, every province, everyone will need to make a difference.”
A senior government official acknowledged that further actions are required to ensure Canada reaches its 2050 goal. The report indicates that even with increased emissions-cutting measures, Canadian oil production is projected to continue growing until the late 2020s due to high prices.
In the most optimistic scenario, where Canada achieves net-zero emissions by 2050 and global warming is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius, Canadian crude production would peak in 2026 before declining to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2050. This would be a significant decrease from the record-high production of 5 million bpd in 2022.
However, the report also highlights the possibility of Canadian oil production increasing until 2029 if the rest of the world is slower to act on reducing emissions. Under a scenario where little additional action is taken to cut emissions, Canadian oil production would peak in 2035.
The report predicts that if Canada does achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, the country’s electricity generation will rely predominantly on zero-emission or low-emission technologies. Wind generation is expected to experience a sharp increase in capacity to meet growing electricity demand, which is projected to double by 2050 if the 2050 goal is achieved.
The findings from the CER’s report serve as a wake-up call for Canada to strengthen its efforts and explore additional measures to reduce emissions significantly. With the urgency of addressing climate change, it is evident that national and global action is necessary to achieve ambitious net-zero goals.
