The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has praised the Federal Government of Nigeria for adopting more conservative and credible assumptions in the newly released 2026‑2028 Medium‑Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF). Describing the MTEF as a “welcome shift toward fiscal realism,” the CPPE said it responds to global economic uncertainties, Nigeria’s recurring revenue shortfalls, and persistent challenges in crude‑oil production. The organization noted that chronic revenue underperformance—driven by overly ambitious macro‑economic projections—has long been a major weakness of Nigeria’s budgeting process. The 2025 budget suffered from unrealistic assumptions, leading to implementation failures and eroding public confidence. By moving to more realistic forecasts, the 2026‑2028 MTEF represents an important step toward restoring credibility to the national budget.
The CPPE welcomed the adoption of dual oil‑production parameters, setting a technical target of 2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd) and a budget benchmark of 1.80 mbpd. However, it argued that the benchmark remains slightly optimistic given years of underproduction, theft, vandalism, and operational constraints, and recommended a more conservative benchmark of 1.6 mbpd. The 2026 oil‑price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel was acknowledged as more cautious than the $75 projected for 2025, yet the CPPE warned that it still exceeds global forecasts from the EIA, Goldman Sachs and the World Bank, which range from $55 to $60. The proposed exchange rate of N1,540 per dollar for 2026 was described as a realistic reflection of likely foreign‑exchange pressures, especially with the 2026 election cycle approaching.
The CPPE commended the downward adjustment of the 2026 revenue projection to N34.33 trillion—a 16 percent reduction from the previous year’s estimate—demonstrating improved fiscal prudence. Nevertheless, the organization cautioned that debt sustainability remains a major concern, with N15.91 trillion allocated to debt servicing in 2026, representing 46 percent of projected revenue. It also criticized the delayed submission of the MTEF to the National Assembly, noting that the Fiscal Responsibility Act requires submission at least four months before the new fiscal year. The CPPE urged lawmakers to ensure fiscal discipline by rejecting attempts to inflate expenditure or introduce unrealistic revenue assumptions during deliberations.
Overall, the 2026‑2028 MTEF is seen as a positive step toward fiscal stability, but the CPPE stressed that deeper reforms are still required to entrench fiscal stability and rebuild public trust. The organization called for sustained commitment to transparent fiscal planning, efficient public spending, and realistic macro‑economic assumptions. As the National Assembly deliberates on the MTEF, the CPPE’s recommendations are likely to play a significant role in shaping Nigeria’s fiscal future.
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