Nigeria inflation to moderate to 12.94 percent in 2026

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has forecast a moderation in the country’s inflation rate to 12.94 percent in 2026, driven by declining prices of fuel and food. This projection is part of the bank’s macroeconomic outlook for Nigeria in 2026, released on Wednesday. The CBN expects the economy to grow by 4.49 percent, attributing this growth to continued gains from broad-based structural reforms and a gradually easing monetary policy stance.

According to the CBN, the decrease in fuel and food prices will be a key factor in reducing inflation. This is evident in the recent drops in fuel prices, which have been triggered by an ongoing price war in the country’s oil downstream sector. Dangote Refinery’s significant reduction in gantry petrol prices has led to fuel prices ranging from N739 to N910 per liter nationwide. Additionally, the National Bureau of Statistics reported a drop in food inflation to 11.08 percent in November 2025.

The CBN’s projection suggests that the Nigerian economy is on a path to recovery, driven by a combination of factors including monetary policy and structural reforms. The expected growth rate of 4.49 percent is a positive indication for the country’s economic prospects. The moderation in inflation is also a welcome development, as it will have a positive impact on the purchasing power of Nigerian consumers.

The decline in fuel prices is a significant factor in reducing the cost of living for Nigerians. The ongoing price war in the oil downstream sector is expected to continue, which may lead to further reductions in fuel prices. The CBN’s forecast is based on the assumption that the current trends will continue, and the bank will likely monitor the situation closely to ensure that its projections are realized.

Overall, the CBN’s macroeconomic outlook for Nigeria in 2026 suggests a positive trajectory for the country’s economy. The expected growth rate and moderation in inflation are indicators of a recovering economy, and the bank’s projections will be closely watched by investors and stakeholders. As the Nigerian economy continues to evolve, it is essential to monitor the key drivers of growth and inflation to ensure that the country remains on a path to sustainable economic development.