The numbers are stacking up in Osun State, and they are painting a picture Governor Ademola Adeleke and his Accord Party have been dreaming of. With results trickling in from over 96 percent of polling units across the state’s 30 local government areas, Adeleke has carved out a formidable lead of more than 66,000 votes over his closest rival, Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
The latest collation from INEC Form EC8A shows the governor has secured 491,975 votes, a solid 51.9 percent of the ballots cast. The APC’s candidate trails with 425,731 votes, or 44.9 percent. That gap of 66,244 votes is not just a lead; it is a fortress.
From the early returns to the final stretch of the count, Adeleke has held a steady seven-point cushion, a consistency that has kept the APC camp scrambling for answers. Even as fresh results landed from key battlegrounds in Ife, Ede, Osogbo, and Iwo, the margin refused to budge, leaving Oyebamiji with a mathematical mountain too steep to climb.
The remaining roughly 130 polling units yet to be counted include several where voting was cancelled altogether, and election watchers say they are unlikely to shift the outcome.
Najeem Salaam of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is languishing in a distant third place with 16,513 votes, just 1.7 percent of the tally. The remaining dozen or so parties on the ballot have collectively scraped together about 14,500 votes, a footnote in what has become a two-horse race.
With 948,768 valid votes already counted, the picture is nearly complete. Adeleke, who won the 2022 election under the Peoples Democratic Party banner before defecting to Accord, is now on the verge of making history as the first Accord candidate to win the governorship in Osun State.
His path back to the Bola Ige Government House looks clear, though the State Collation and Returning Officer has yet to make the formal declaration. Under the Electoral Act, the winner must not only top the vote count but also satisfy the geographical spread requirement. With such a commanding margin, that formality appears to be a matter of time.
For the APC, the wait for a concession may be the hardest part. The party’s hopes of reclaiming the state have been dashed by a governor who has proven that political loyalties can shift, but voter trust is harder to break.
