SB Morgen Intelligence has warned that escalating reprisal attacks between armed Fulani groups and Berom and Mwaghavul communities in Plateau State risk pushing the conflict into a high-intensity phase, particularly in Mangu Local Government Area.
The assessment appears in the SBM Intel Security Report covering August 14 to 20, 2026. Analysts said the violence forms part of a retaliatory cycle persisting at low to medium intensity since late 2025, with recent incidents raising the probability of further escalation.
Mangu and Barkin Ladi LGAs were identified as highly volatile following a series of attacks involving Fulani herders and local farming communities. The report highlighted an attack on the Bin-Per community in Kombun District, Mangu, where at least 23 people were reportedly killed. Analysts assessed this was most likely a reprisal for an earlier attack on herders and their cattle in Naben village.
“The clashes in Plateau State continues the cycle of reprisal attacks that have been going on in low-mid intensity since late 2025 and is now in the running for a high intensity phase in at least Mangu,” the report stated. The killing of two herders in Naben likely triggered the larger reprisal, demonstrating how individual attacks can rapidly escalate into mass violence. Bin-Per was likely targeted because it is a farming settlement in an area with a history of clashes between Mwaghavul and Fulani communities.
The report also linked the killing of a young woman in Gana Ropp, Barkin Ladi, to the broader pattern of persistent violence, while warning that criminal groups could exploit the unrest to loot and kill. SBMI said the violence reflects a breakdown of trust between communities and weaknesses in preventing attacks and reprisals.
In the North East, growing military pressure on Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province is restricting their access to bases and supply lines, pushing them toward opportunistic raids on rural communities. The report cited an attack on Dhang community in Hong LGA, Adamawa State, where suspected Boko Haram fighters reportedly killed at least five people, including a police inspector. The targeting of pharmacies, food vendors and agricultural chemical stores suggests the attackers were seeking food, medicine and other supplies rather than attempting to seize territory. SBMI expects more low-intensity hit-and-run attacks in northern Adamawa over the next month, particularly in Hong, Madagali and Michika LGAs.
In the North West, the killing of at least 38 Lakurawa fighters in Gummi LGA, Zamfara State, could temporarily weaken the group as surviving members regroup. The setback could push remaining fighters toward softer targets and income-generating activities such as cattle rustling and looting. SBMI linked Lakurawa activities in Zamfara to attacks in Tambuwal LGA, Sokoto State, where fighters reportedly killed two people, led Friday prayers and stole cattle. The report warned of further attacks in Kaya and Tambuwal if security pressure eases, while recent attacks on security personnel could increase the likelihood of direct clashes between Lakurawa and the military.
The assessment comes as the Federal Government moves to strengthen national security planning. President Bola Tinubu recently directed a nine-member committee of senior military and intelligence officials to produce a comprehensive National Threat Assessment and a rolling five-year Strategic Defence Operations Plan within 90 days. The committee, coordinated by the Special Adviser on Homeland Security, Major General Adeyinka Famadewa, is expected to identify Nigeria’s principal security threats, assess their urgency and establish operational priorities.
Tinubu said the absence of a common national threat assessment and medium-term operational plan had made coordination more difficult and limited the efficient use of security resources. The framework is expected to establish a common understanding of the country’s security threats, the objectives to be achieved and the capabilities required to address them. Once approved, the Strategic Defence Operations Plan will guide a corresponding multi-year defence spending and procurement plan.
In Plateau State, SBMI said the relocation of a military tactical headquarters to Mangu and the launch of Operation Hard Nut could deter large-scale attacks in the short term, but may not address the grievances driving the conflict. The report warned that armed groups could shift toward softer targets, with Kombun District and villages around Gana Ropp identified as areas at risk of further attacks.
