It has been almost a year since Ethiopia signed the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA), effectively ending a devastating two-year civil war in the northern region. Sadly, despite hopes for lasting peace, the country is once again embroiled in conflict, highlighting the urgent need for a comprehensive peace process.
The civil war involved various factions, including the Ethiopian National Defense Force, Eritrean Defense Forces, regional special forces, ethnic militias, and opposition groups. The war resulted in a severe humanitarian crisis, widespread starvation, and countless atrocities, making it one of the deadliest conflicts in recent Ethiopian history.
Despite initial optimism following the signing of the CoHA in November 2022, the peace achieved was short-lived. The normalization of relations between Tigray and the federal government led to tensions between the Amhara region and the government. The federal government’s decision to centralize the regional security apparatus was met with strong resistance from the Amhara, who feared it would leave them vulnerable to aggression.
The Amhara’s concerns stem from fears of ethnic cleansing, attacks on ethnic Amharas in neighboring regions, and territorial disputes. Many Amhara residents question the federal government’s ability to provide adequate security and demand arms for self-defense against hostile regions.
In response to the unrest, the federal government dismissed the concerns raised by the Amhara, labeling the resistance as an organized attempt to disrupt peace. The government accuses armed groups of trying to dismantle the regional government and federal system, dismissing their grievances as baseless.
In another part of the country, negotiations between the federal government and the Oromo Liberation Army failed to yield lasting peace. Both parties have engaged in armed confrontations, exacerbating tensions in the Oromia region. While there is a shared understanding of the need for peace, concrete steps must be taken to build trust and ensure the implementation of peaceful resolutions.
To achieve lasting peace, a localized reconciliation strategy should be pursued. This strategy should involve de-escalation, effective disarmament, and dialogue that addresses the real and perceived threats faced by citizens. All major players must be included in the national dialogue process to ensure their voices are heard and taken into account.
The conflict in Ethiopia is complex and multifaceted, involving various actors with different grievances. It is crucial to map out these actors and their concerns to design a reconciliation strategy that encompasses all parties involved. By taking a multicultural and flexible approach, Ethiopia can work towards a sustainable peace that addresses both vertical and horizontal conflicts.
It is high time that Ethiopia moves beyond a mere cessation of hostilities and towards a comprehensive peace that brings an end to the cycle of violence and suffering. Only then can the country rebuild and move forward towards a brighter future for all its citizens.
By Fikir G Mekonen, Moussa Soumahoro, and Zenaw Alem, Consultants at ISS Addis Ababa.
