As Mali’s ruling junta, the Assimi Goita regime, continues to clash with jihadist forces and expel international peacekeeping missions, the beleaguered republic struggles to achieve stability.

The United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) completed its withdrawal on January 7, with the symbolic lowering of the UN flag in Bamako signifying the end of the 15,000-strong force’s presence. Mali’s decision to expel MINUSMA, accusing it of exacerbating inter-communal tensions, reflects the nation’s turbulent relationship with international interventions.

MINUSMA’s departure comes amid a surge in violence, with Mali grappling with an Islamic extremist insurgency that has persisted since 2012. Despite previous efforts to quell the rebellion, including Operation Serval led by France and subsequent UN presence, extremist groups linked to Al-Qaeda and Islamic State continue to pose a significant threat.

The junta’s expulsion of French counterinsurgency forces in 2022 further complicated the security landscape, leading to heightened unrest. The country’s government, which seized power after consecutive coups in 2020 and 2021, now faces the formidable challenge of combating jihadist groups while navigating internal and external pressures.

The recent emergence of a three-way alliance, consisting of the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA), the Imghad Tuareg Self-Defense Group and Allies (GATIA), and the Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), further underscores the complexity of Mali’s internal conflict. The alliance seeks to overthrow the ruling junta and expel its foreign allies, posing a significant threat to the Assimi Goita regime.

Amidst the withdrawal of international forces, the junta’s confrontation with the jihadist insurgency has intensified, triggering a new civil war and prompting accusations of human rights violations. The escalating violence, coupled with the expulsion of UN officials and foreign military involvement, exacerbates the already precarious situation in Mali.

As Mali stands at a critical juncture, the junta’s ability to navigate these challenges and confront the jihadist insurgency will have far-reaching implications for the nation’s future. The path to stability remains uncertain, and the international community closely watches Mali’s struggle for peace and security.

This report emphasizes the intricate dynamics of Mali’s internal conflict, shedding light on the junta’s complex position and the formidable task of resolving the nation’s security crisis.

The Complexities of Jihadist Insurgency in the Sahel Region

The Sahel region is grappling with a multifaceted jihadist insurgency that has escalated in recent years, affecting Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and neighboring countries. This has been fueled by a combination of factors including instability, weak governance, organized crime, and geopolitical influences. The situation has been further complicated by the role and limitations of international peacekeeping efforts.

The conflict in the Sahel encompasses a struggle for territorial autonomy by Tuareg rebels in northern Mali, in addition to the ambitions of jihadist groups such as al-Qaeda’s JNIM and ISIS-affiliated ISGS to establish an Islamic caliphate. The power vacuum resulting from military coups in Mali and Burkina Faso, combined with the influence of entities like the Wagner Group from Russia, has exacerbated the situation.

Experts highlight the role of regional instability in providing fertile ground for jihadist expansion and attacks. The proliferation of illicit activities such as narcotics and arms trafficking has also played a significant part in the rise of insurgency in the Sahel. These dynamics have created a breeding ground for militant recruitment, exacerbating the conflict and placing civilian populations in the crossfire.

The United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) has played a pivotal but challenging role in this complex landscape. While mandated to support the peace process and carry out security-related tasks, the mission has faced criticism for its defensive nature and limitations in directly combating terrorist groups. The unrealistic alignment of its mandate with the actual situation on the ground has hindered its effectiveness, leading to disillusionment among local populations and a perception of foreign intervention.

The inability of MINUSMA to effectively confront the jihadist threat has, in some instances, inadvertently contributed to a burden on the mission rather than serving as an asset. Moreover, the withdrawal of Western forces like France and the arrival of other international actors, notably the Wagner Group, have reshaped the geopolitical dynamics in Mali and the Sahel, further complicating the security landscape.

Ultimately, MINUSMA’s limitations, combined with the rise of grievances against the previous administration’s failure to address security threats, have led to the mission being viewed as a foreign force and a scapegoat for the country’s instability. Amidst these challenges, the jihadist groups in the Sahel have demonstrated enduring determination and strategic depth, making the task of quelling the insurgency immensely challenging.

As the complexities of the Sahel insurgency continue to unfold, it is evident that a comprehensive approach addressing political, social, and economic dimensions is essential to confronting the root causes of the conflict. The need for genuine regional stability, good governance, and effective international collaboration remains paramount in paving the way for a sustainable resolution to the crisis in the Sahel.

MINUSMA’s Departure from Mali Marks Uncertain Future for Peacekeeping Efforts

Mali faces an uncertain future as concerns rise over the departure of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA). Despite recent successes in capturing militant strongholds, the overall security situation remains bleak, with civilian casualties piling up due to military operations and attacks by extremist factions.

As MINUSMA exits the stage, questions loom over who will take up the mantle in ensuring peace and stability in the region. With growing opposition to peacekeeping missions in various hotspots, including Congo’s request for MONUSCO’s withdrawal, the efficacy and relevance of such operations are being called into question.

Amidst these uncertainties, concerns have been raised regarding the performance and impact of MINUSMA. Some argue that the mission may have been unfairly maligned, emphasizing the cooperation with the Malian government and the contributions of troop-contributing countries. However, as MINUSMA’s departure looms large, the potential vacuum it leaves behind raises critical concerns about the future security landscape in Mali.

Furthermore, the potential scenarios following MINUSMA’s exit paint a grim picture, with the possibility of the Malian army and Russian-linked forces being militarily defeated, leading to a potential fragmentation of Mali.

As MINUSMA bids farewell, the international community must now contemplate the next steps in Mali’s peacekeeping journey, as the country stands at a crossroads with an uncertain path ahead.

With the departure of MINUSMA, the spotlight now shifts to the future of peacekeeping efforts in Mali and the broader implications for international security initiatives in the region.