A deepening rift between Somalia’s federal government and Jubbaland’s regional administration has escalated tensions in the strategic Gedo region, with top officials trading blame over worsening security and civilian suffering. During a visit to the flashpoint town of Balad-Hawo, Abdirashid Janan, the federal government’s intelligence chief for Gedo, accused Jubbaland President Ahmed Madobe’s administration of deliberately destabilizing the area.
“The situation in Balad-Hawo is deteriorating because of continuous interference from Jubbaland’s leadership,” said Janan, a former Jubbaland security minister now aligned with Mogadishu. He claimed the regional government’s actions have exacerbated hardships for civilians, who face recurring clashes between federal forces and Jubbaland-aligned militias.
Janan’s remarks come amid reports of defections, with soldiers reportedly abandoning federal posts to join Jubbaland’s ranks. In response, he issued a direct appeal to pro-Madobe fighters, offering amnesty and formal recognition if they switch allegiance. “Those supporting Madobe have no rights or official status,” he stated. “But if they defect, we guarantee their military entitlements.”
The offer is widely seen as part of Mogadishu’s broader campaign to weaken Jubbaland’s grip on Gedo, a resource-rich area bordering Kenya that has long been contested. Federal efforts include restructuring military command chains, installing leaders loyal to the central government, and curtailing Kismayo’s influence. Analysts describe the strategy as a “political chess match” to consolidate control ahead of potential negotiations over power-sharing and regional autonomy.
The feud reflects a persistent struggle between Villa Somalia, the federal government’s seat, and Jubbaland, which has resisted Mogadishu’s authority since gaining semi-autonomous status in 2013. Gedo’s strategic value—as a trade corridor and buffer zone near Kenya—has intensified the rivalry, with both sides leveraging clan networks and military posturing.
Observers note Janan’s defection incentive aims not only to bolster federal ranks but to fracture Jubbaland’s forces from within. “This isn’t just about recruitment—it’s a calculated move to dismantle Madobe’s military structure before talks,” said a Nairobi-based analyst, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of the topic.
Civilians, however, remain caught in the crossfire. Local sources report displaced families, disrupted trade, and dwindining resources as security operations persist. With no immediate resolution in sight, the standoff underscores the fragile balance between Somalia’s federal ambitions and regional demands for self-governance—a tension that continues to shape the nation’s path toward stability.
