The conflict in Sudan has entered a perilous new phase, with recent drone strikes by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on strategic sites in Port Sudan and other eastern cities signaling a dramatic escalation. Between 4 and 7 May 2025, the paramilitary group targeted fuel depots, power stations, and military installations, including the Osman Digna airbase, inflicting substantial damage. Analysts warn these attacks mark a turning point in the 15-month war, enabling the RSF to project force far beyond its traditional strongholds and destabilizing a region already grappling with cross-border tensions.
At the heart of the crisis lies Eritrea’s decades-long influence in eastern Sudan, where the two nations share a porous 600-kilometer border. Experts describe Eritrea’s strategy as one of “preventive penetration,” aimed at securing its interests by backing ethnic armed groups in Sudan while balancing fraught relationships with Ethiopia, its larger neighbor. Having played a pivotal role in Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict, Eritrea now faces scrutiny for allegedly training and arming militias in eastern Sudan. This tactic, coupled with the Sudanese Armed Forces’ (SAF) militarization efforts, risks igniting large-scale ethnic clashes that could ripple across the Horn of Africa and Red Sea Basin.
The war’s regional ramifications are amplified by the involvement of global powers. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and Ethiopia are among those leveraging the conflict to advance strategic and economic interests, while Russia, Ukraine, and Iran have also been linked to competing factions. Meanwhile, eastern Sudan has become a hotspot for tribal militias and weapon proliferation, raising fears of cross-border spillover. A recent study based on interviews with eastern Sudanese leaders and open-source data highlights how these dynamics threaten to entangle neighboring countries in a widening security crisis.
Researchers conducting the study faced significant obstacles, including restricted movement, heightened surveillance, and communication blackouts, underscoring the deteriorating conditions on the ground. Participants described a region increasingly fractured by external interventions and localized power struggles.
As drone warfare reshapes the conflict, the RSF’s expanded capabilities challenge the SAF’s dominance and risk drawing Eritrea, Ethiopia, and other regional actors into direct confrontation. With vital trade routes and Red Sea access at stake, the international community faces mounting pressure to address a crisis that now threatens to destabilize one of Africa’s most volatile corridors.
