Nigeria’s political landscape faces a pivotal test as by-elections take place across 12 states today, with the African Democratic Congress (ADC) seeking to assert its growing influence as a coalition-backed opposition force. The elections, organized by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), cover 16 legislative seats—including two Senate positions—vacated due to resignations, litigation, or deaths. The outcomes could shape strategies for the 2027 general elections, where opposition groups aim to unseat the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
The ADC, recently endorsed by a coalition of prominent opposition figures, has intensified campaigning to secure victories. High-profile supporters include former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, ex-governors Peter Obi (Anambra), Nasir El-Rufai (Kaduna), and interim party chairman Senator David Mark. Political analysts describe the polls as a litmus test for the ADC’s capacity to challenge the APC’s dominance, particularly after its adoption by leaders targeting President Bola Tinubu’s removal in 2027.
Controversy emerged when Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, campaigned for an ADC candidate in Onitsha North 1, despite pledging allegiance to his party. Labour Party officials attributed the move to INEC’s alleged failure to upload candidate details for the constituency, calling it a “deception.” Anambra Labour Chairman Emeh Ugochukwu Emmanuel clarified that the ADC candidate—whose husband was murdered—was originally their preferred nominee, adding that a court has since ordered INEC to rectify the oversight.
In Kaduna, former governor Nasir El-Rufai, now a Social Democratic Party (SDP) member, drew scrutiny for backing an ADC candidate in Chikun/Kajuru Federal Constituency. While critics accused him of sidelining SDP contenders, El-Rufai later urged voters in Zaria and Sabingari to support his current party, highlighting fluid alliances within the opposition bloc.
Security concerns loom over voting in regions like Anambra and Kaduna, where armed groups have escalated attacks. A security source warned that fear of violence might suppress voter turnout in Anambra, potentially advantaging the APC. However, Inspector-General of Police Kayode Egbetokun deployed tactical units and senior officers to oversee polling stations, aiming to curb disruptions.
The Edo Central Senate seat, vacated after Senator Monday Okpebholo became governor, and re-runs in Enugu and Kano ordered by courts, add complexity to the electoral dynamics. Results will offer insights into shifting voter loyalties and the opposition’s cohesion ahead of 2027, with the ADC’s performance likely to influence its viability as a unified platform against Nigeria’s ruling party.
