Kenya’s economic landscape is facing a significant challenge as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is set to expire on September 30. This duty-free trade arrangement with the United States has been instrumental in anchoring billions of shillings in investment, supporting 66,000 apparel jobs, and sustaining the livelihoods of nearly 660,000 Kenyans in the apparel sector.

The AGOA has been a crucial factor in Kenya’s trade relationship with the US, allowing the country to maintain a competitive edge in the global market. However, with the expiration date looming, Kenya is at risk of losing its advantage to countries like Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Egypt. In response, the Kenyan government has dispatched Trade Minister Lee Kinyanjui to Washington to negotiate an extension of the agreement.

Time is of the essence, and sustained diplomatic efforts are necessary to secure an extension. If AGOA is not renewed, Kenya will need to explore alternative arrangements to maintain its trade relationship with the US. One possible solution is a Kenya-US Free Trade Agreement (FTA), which could provide the predictability that investors need and secure Kenya’s position in global supply chains.

In the short term, a mitigation package will be essential to cushion the impact of tariff shocks, protect factories, and preserve jobs. This package will need to be implemented swiftly to prevent significant disruption to Kenya’s economy. Beyond the textile industry, Kenya has the potential to diversify its exports, leveraging its agricultural sector to increase trade with the US. The country could focus on exporting goods like nuts and horticultural products, as well as value-added goods, to tap into the US market.

The expiration of AGOA presents a challenge, but it also offers an opportunity for Kenya to reassess its trade strategy and explore new avenues for growth. With coordinated action and bold decision-making, Kenya can navigate this challenging moment and emerge stronger. The country’s future lies in diversification and strategic trade agreements, and the next few weeks will be critical in determining the course of Kenya’s economic development.