The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that global oil supply hit a record high in August, driven by increased production from OPEC + countries and other nations. Supply rose to 106.9 million barrels per day (mbd), with key OPEC + members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia gradually raising output since April. The cartel announced another production hike on Sunday, suggesting the upward trend will continue.
Non‑OPEC + producers—including the United States, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina—have also been expanding output, reaching or approaching all‑time highs. While oil demand rose slightly in August, the IEA projects a surplus for 2025 that should keep prices in check. Brent, the international benchmark, averaged $67 in August, down $2 from the previous month. The agency attributes the bearish investor sentiment to the looming oversupply, which has muted any upward price pressure.
The IEA forecasts total oil supply to increase by 2.7 million mbd to 105.8 million mbd in 2025, with demand rising to 103.9 million mbd. In 2026, supply is expected to climb further to 107.9 million mbd, while demand reaches 104.6 million mbd. This growing surplus signals a shift in the balance between supply and demand and may exert additional downward pressure on prices.
As the global energy landscape evolves, the IEA’s reports will be closely watched by industry stakeholders and investors. With the recent production hike and projected surplus, the oil market is likely to remain volatile, making the agency’s forecasts essential for understanding the market’s future direction.
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