A recent study has found that countries are planning to increase fossil fuel production, despite global commitments to combat climate change. The report, compiled by over 50 international researchers, compares fossil fuel expansion plans with the goals of the Paris climate accord, revealing a significant discrepancy between promises and reality.
According to the “Production Gap” report, countries are now collectively planning to produce even more fossil fuels than they were two years ago. This increase is incompatible with the Paris accord’s goal of limiting global temperature rises to well below 2°C and striving for a safer limit of 1.5°C. The projected 2030 production of coal, oil, and gas exceeds the levels consistent with achieving the 1.5°C target by over 120 percent and the 2°C target by 77 percent.
The gap between climate ambitions and actual fossil fuel production plans has widened since the last report in 2023. Despite a pledge by nations at the UN COP28 summit to “transition away” from fossil fuels, demand for gas has surged, and China’s projected decline in coal use has slowed. The report notes that all parties to the Paris accord must submit fresh climate targets and detailed plans for slashing planet-heating emissions before the UN COP30 summit in November.
To meet the Paris accord’s goals, countries must commit to reversing the expansion of global fossil fuel production. The continued failure of governments to curb fossil fuel production and lower global emissions means that future production will need to decline more steeply to compensate. The massive use of coal, oil, and fossil gas for energy is the primary driver of human-induced global warming.
Among the 20 largest fossil-fuel producing nations, including the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia, 17 plan to increase operations by 2030. Eleven intend to produce more of at least one fossil fuel in 2030 than they were planning two years ago. The report emphasizes the need for countries to reassess their fossil fuel production plans and commit to reducing emissions to meet the Paris accord’s goals. As the world prepares for the UN COP30 summit, the significance of this issue cannot be overstated, and the need for collective action to address the climate crisis is becoming increasingly urgent.
