The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a cornerstone of US-African commercial relations for 25 years, is set to expire on September 30th. The legislation provides duty and quota-free access to the US market for over 6,000 products from 32 African nations, creating tens of thousands of jobs in Africa and enabling US companies to source products from the region.

AGOA has been instrumental in promoting US-African trade, with African beneficiary countries exporting over $100 billion worth of non-crude products to the US since its inception. However, with the current administration’s emphasis on reciprocity in trade agreements, there is little reason to believe that Congress will pass a last-minute extension.

The US Trade Representative has outlined the administration’s trade policy, which prioritizes reciprocity and the use of tariffs and deals to stimulate economic development. This approach may not align with the underlying rationale of AGOA, which aims to promote economic development in Africa through trade.

A short-term extension of AGOA would be beneficial, as it would preserve the tariff advantage for some African nations and provide an opportunity for Congress to explore how to modernize the agreement. Senators James E. Risch and Chris Coons have proposed legislation that would modify AGOA’s rules of origin, allowing inputs from North African countries to count towards the requirement that 35% of a product’s value originates in the region.

If AGOA expires, the US may increase its isolation from Africa, as other countries, such as China, become more engaged in the region. China’s trade with Africa is already three times that of the US, and Beijing has eliminated tariffs on 8,000 products from African countries. The expiration of AGOA would also mean that US companies would face increased tariffs on products from Africa, making it more difficult for them to compete in the global market.

The significance of AGOA’s potential expiration cannot be overstated, as it would impact not only US-African trade relations but also the global economy. With Africa expected to become home to one in four people in the world over the next 25 years, the US risks losing a unique commercial foothold on the continent if AGOA is not renewed or replaced with a more effective agreement.