Russia’s seaborne crude exports have remained near a 16-month high, with average daily shipments holding steady at 3.62 million barrels over the past four weeks. Despite US President Donald Trump’s efforts to pressure global buyers into halting imports from Moscow, the country’s crude exports have shown little impact. According to vessel-tracking data, the continued flow of Russian oil comes as a result of targeted US efforts to persuade countries to curb imports.
The US has been attempting to persuade countries such as the EU, India, and China to stop purchasing Russian oil, describing the move as an effort to advance a potential Ukraine peace settlement. However, Moscow has criticized Washington’s strong-arm tactics, saying that sovereign nations have the right to choose their trade partners. India, in particular, has faced pressure from the US, with Washington imposing 25% punitive tariffs on the country in August. Despite this, New Delhi has refused to scale back imports from Russia, describing Washington’s policy as economic coercion.
China has also taken a firm stance, with its Ministry of Commerce reaffirming intentions to deepen energy cooperation with Russia. The ministry has stated that Beijing will defend its interests as the US pushes G7 nations to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports. European buyers, such as Hungary and Slovakia, which are reliant on pipeline shipments, have cited economic and logistical obstacles to ending Russian oil imports. Turkish imports have also remained steady, averaging around 300,000 barrels per day.
The redirection of oil from Russian refineries damaged by Ukrainian drone strikes may be contributing to the continued export volumes. However, export terminal capacity could become a limiting factor if strikes intensify. In the most recent week, 36 tankers carried 26.75 million barrels of Russian crude, a rise from the previous week’s 23.69 million. The total value of exports in the week to September 28 rose by $240 million to $1.57 billion.
The persistence of Russian crude exports despite US pressure highlights the complexities of global energy trade. As countries navigate their relationships with Russia and the US, the flow of oil continues to play a significant role in international relations. The situation is likely to continue evolving, with potential implications for global energy markets and geopolitical tensions.
