The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reported a slowdown in the growth of renewable energy, citing policy changes in the United States and China as key factors. This shift is expected to hinder the global community’s goal of tripling renewable energy output by 2030, set just two years ago to mitigate climate change.
According to the IEA, the world will likely fall short of achieving this target, with a forecasted gain of 4,600 gigawatts (GW) of renewable power by 2030, down from the previously predicted 5,500 GW. This reduction is attributed to “policy, regulatory and market changes” since October 2024. The agency has revised its forecast for the United States downward by nearly 50 percent due to the early phase-out of tax credits for renewables and stricter regulatory controls.
In China, a shift from fixed tariffs to auctions for renewable energy producers has impacted project profitability, leading to lower growth expectations. However, China still accounts for the majority of growth in renewable energy and is on track to meet its 2035 wind and solar power target five years ahead of schedule.
Despite the slowdown in these countries, the IEA notes a more positive outlook in other regions. India is expected to meet its 2030 target and become the second-largest growth market for renewables, with capacity set to increase by 2.5 times in five years. The agency has also raised its forecasts for the Middle East and North Africa by 25 percent, and revised its predictions upward for Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain.
Solar panels have driven approximately 80 percent of global growth in renewable energy over the past five years, followed by wind, water, biomass, and geothermal power. The outlook for offshore wind power has been revised downward due to policy changes, particularly in the United States.
The IEA emphasizes that renewables are crucial for enhancing energy security and reducing fuel import needs. As renewable power is expected to account for 30 percent of global output by 2030, countries must increase the flexibility of their electricity networks to accommodate the intermittent nature of renewable energy. By doing so, they can improve energy diversification and security, ultimately supporting their climate change mitigation efforts.
