Goldman Sachs has raised its December 2026 gold price forecast to $4,900 per ounce, up from $4,300. The revision reflects strong inflows into Western exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) and expected central‑bank purchases. Goldman notes that upside risks remain, driven by possible private‑sector diversification into gold, which could further increase ETF holdings.
As of Tuesday, spot gold was trading around $3,960 per ounce, after hitting a fresh high of $3,977.19 earlier in the day. This year, gold has surged 51%, buoyed by robust central‑bank buying, rising demand for gold‑backed ETFs, a weaker U.S. dollar, and growing retail interest as a hedge against trade and geopolitical tensions.
Goldman anticipates that central banks will stay major buyers, averaging 80 metric tons in 2025 and 70 metric tons in 2026. Emerging‑market central banks are expected to lead this demand as they diversify reserves into gold. The bank also projects that Western ETF holdings will increase, helped by a potential 100‑basis‑point cut in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s funds rate by mid‑2026.
Despite recent strength in ETF holdings, speculative positioning has remained relatively stable. Western ETF holdings now align with Goldman’s U.S. rates‑implied estimate, indicating that the recent ETF rally is not an overshoot. With gold prices expected to keep rising, investors will watch central‑bank buying and ETF demand closely in the coming months. The revised forecast underscores gold’s growing appeal as a safe‑haven asset amid ongoing economic uncertainty.
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