Global merchandise trade growth has exceeded expectations in 2025, driven by increased spending on AI-related products and a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has raised its forecast for trade volume growth in 2025 to 2.4 percent, up from 0.9 percent in August. This growth is largely attributed to the rise in exports to the United States, particularly in the field of artificial intelligence.
The WTO attributes this growth to several factors, including increased spending on AI-related goods, a surge in North American imports, and strong trade among other countries. However, the organization warns that the impact of US tariffs will be felt in 2026, with the trade volume growth outlook cut from 1.8 percent to 0.5 percent. The US has imposed several waves of new tariffs on imports, including a basic tariff of 10 percent on all countries since April, with higher rates for some economies.
WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala cautions that while countries have responded measuredly to tariff changes and the growth potential of AI has helped ease trade setbacks in 2025, this should not lead to complacency. The former Nigerian finance minister emphasizes that today’s disruptions to the global trade system are a call to action for nations to reimagine trade and lay a stronger foundation for greater prosperity.
The WTO’s global GDP growth projection is 2.7 percent this year and 2.6 percent in 2026. The organization’s updated global trade outlook highlights the need for countries to work together to strengthen the global trade system. As the impact of US tariffs kicks in, the WTO’s forecasts suggest a bleaker picture for 2026, underscoring the need for international cooperation to promote trade resilience and prosperity.
The surge in AI-related exports and North American imports has helped boost global trade growth in 2025, but the long-term effects of the US tariffs remain a concern. As the global trade landscape continues to evolve, the WTO’s warnings and projections serve as a reminder of the need for nations to work together to promote a stronger and more resilient global trade system. With the WTO’s revised forecasts, countries must now consider the potential implications of the US tariffs and work towards finding solutions to promote trade growth and prosperity in the years to come.