The UK is facing a significant decline in domestic gas production, which has dropped to a 50-year low. According to the Financial Times, the country’s national gas grid operator, National Gas UK, forecasts a 6% decrease in domestic gas production this winter compared to last year. This decline will be offset by a 7% increase in imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Britain’s primary supplier of gas will be Norway, accounting for approximately 36% of the country’s winter needs, while domestic production will only account for 33%. The global LNG market is expected to supply 24% of the UK’s gas needs. The UK’s gas grid operator has expressed concern over the country’s tight margins for winter 2025/2026, citing the continued decline in supplies from the UK Continental Shelf.

Official government statistics show that British gas production plummeted 10% between 2023 and 2024, reaching its lowest level since 1973. The decline in domestic production has made the UK increasingly reliant on LNG imports to meet rising winter demand. National Gas UK has identified LNG as a key source to meet this demand, and the country is undergoing a major re-engineering of its national gas grid to adapt to the changing supply landscape.

The UK’s growing reliance on LNG imports is driven by the decline in domestic production, which is forecast to fall a further 6% in 2025. This decline has highlighted the vulnerability of Britain’s gas supply, particularly during periods of high demand such as cold snaps. The country’s ban on Russian LNG imports, which took effect in January 2023, has also contributed to the supply crunch.

The significance of a stable gas supply cannot be overstated, as natural gas fuels approximately 40% of the UK’s electricity and heats 28 million households. The UK’s gas grid operator is working to ensure a reliable supply of gas to meet the country’s needs, but the ongoing decline in domestic production and reliance on imports poses a challenge for the country’s energy security. As the UK continues to navigate its energy landscape, the importance of a diverse and reliable energy mix will remain a key focus for policymakers and industry leaders.