Xi Jinping is poised to secure a third term as China’s president during the upcoming National People’s Congress (NPC), which begins this weekend. Despite facing criticism over his handling of Covid and the economy, Xi enjoys an unchallengeable status. He solidified his position by securing another five years as head of the Communist Party (CCP) and the military in October, the two most significant leadership roles in Chinese politics. Since then, the 69-year-old leader has encountered unexpected challenges, including mass protests against his zero-Covid policy and its abrupt abandonment, which resulted in numerous deaths. However, these contentious issues are likely to be sidestepped during the NPC, a meticulously orchestrated event that will also see the appointment of a Xi ally as the new premier.
The NPC is expected to last around ten days, culminating in the endorsement of Xi’s presidency by approximately 3,000 delegates voting in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People. Alfred Muluan Wu, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, noted that public opinion regarding Xi is likely unfavorable, as the zero-Covid policy has eroded faith in his leadership. Nevertheless, Wu emphasized that Xi maintains a “pretty strong” position at the top of the party, rendering him virtually unchallengeable. China upheld some of the world’s strictest Covid restrictions until late last year, severely impacting economic growth and social life through relentless testing mandates, quarantines, and travel limitations that Xi himself supported.
Public discontent erupted in November, leading to the most widespread protests in decades, which were followed by a swift dismantling of the zero-Covid policy and a surge of infections and deaths that largely went unreported by authorities. The country is still cautiously emerging from the outbreak after three years during which business, employment, and education were subordinated to the government’s stringent measures to contain the virus. Experts predict that lawmakers at the NPC will set some of China’s lowest economic growth targets in decades during the opening session. Despite this, there is no indication that Xi’s position is in jeopardy; he has filled the party’s top ranks with loyalists and eliminated rivals during last year’s Congress reshuffle. Li Qiang, a close confidant of Xi and former Shanghai party chief, is expected to be named premier.
Rather than undermining Xi’s rule, last year’s protests may have provided him with a convenient opportunity, according to Christopher Johnson, president and CEO of China Strategies Group. He suggested that if the abandonment of zero-Covid went well, Xi could claim he was responsive to the people’s needs. Conversely, if the situation deteriorated, he could attribute the blame to the protesters and “hostile foreign forces,” as suggested by his top security chief. Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute at the University of London, pointed out that Xi now has a chance to showcase his decisive response to the protests, which included calls for his resignation and that of the CCP. By quelling the protests and addressing their root causes, Xi can present himself as a proactive leader rather than one forced to react.
However, Vivienne Shue, an emeritus professor at Oxford University, argued that it is time for Chinese leaders to reflect on what appears to be a cumulative record of failures in responding to crises in recent years. The NPC delegates, along with those attending the concurrent Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), will also approve personnel changes and discuss various issues, ranging from economic recovery to improved sex education in schools, as reported by state media. While these meetings serve as a platform for attendees to present their initiatives, they have limited influence over broader governance matters. This year’s conclave occurs amid increasingly strained relations with Western countries, exacerbated by a dispute with the United States over alleged surveillance balloons and concerns regarding Beijing’s ambiguous stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In addition to announcing China’s GDP target for the coming year, outgoing Premier Li Keqiang is expected to pledge an increase in military spending during his speech at the NPC’s opening ceremony.
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