Nigeria is poised to increase its gas exports following the European Union’s ban on importing Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from Russia. The EU’s decision, which comes into effect on January 1, 2027, is part of its efforts to reduce dependence on Russian energy. Nigeria, a leading LNG exporter with a diversified customer base across Europe and Asia, is well-positioned to capitalize on this opportunity.

According to Reuters, the EU will be able to fully replace Russian LNG imports with alternative supplies from 2027 without major price shocks. This is due to the anticipated boom in LNG projects in the United States, Qatar, Nigeria, and other countries. The EU has already cut its reliance on Russian energy by 90% since 2022, but it still imported over 11 billion euros’ worth of Russian energy this year.

The global LNG market is expected to experience a significant increase in supply capacity by 2027, with an estimated 161 million tons per annum (mtpa) added to the global export capacity. The United States will lead this expansion, adding over 50 mtpa by the end of 2027, cementing its position as the top exporter. Qatar is also expected to increase its LNG export capacity by around 31 mtpa, thanks to its North Field expansion, while Canada and Nigeria will also launch new projects.

Nigeria’s main operator, Nigeria LNG Limited (NLNG), has a production capacity of 22 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) and is undergoing expansion with the Train 7 project, which will increase capacity to approximately 30 MTPA upon completion. The country’s key markets include Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, Turkey, China, and India.

The EU’s ban on Russian LNG imports is not expected to reduce overall Russian supply in the market but will instead reshape global trade flows, with cargoes likely shifting to Asia. However, prices in Europe and Asia could rise if Russia is unable to sell significant volumes of LNG in Asia due to sanctions and unwillingness of Asian buyers to import it.

In summary, Nigeria’s gas export industry is set to benefit from the EU’s ban on Russian LNG imports, with the country poised to increase its exports and capitalize on the growing demand for alternative energy sources. The global LNG market is expected to experience significant growth in the coming years, with Nigeria playing a key role in meeting this demand.