A prolonged US government shutdown has resulted in a significant data blackout, with the release of third-quarter GDP figures being postponed. This has left policymakers, financial institutions, and business owners without crucial information to inform their decisions. The shutdown, which has entered its 30th day, has already delayed reports on employment, trade, and retail sales, among others.
The lack of data is particularly concerning as it coincides with a critical period for businesses, which are finalizing their budgets for 2026. Economists had expected GDP growth of 2.8 percent in the July to September period, although this figure is now uncertain. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow indicator had estimated a higher growth rate of 3.9 percent.
The ongoing information blackout is likely to have significant consequences for businesses, which may reduce hiring and investment due to the uncertainty. According to Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, companies are struggling to gauge the economic outlook for 2026 and make informed decisions about their budgets. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that the shutdown could cost the economy up to $14 billion.
The delay in data releases is also expected to distort October and November numbers, with some data potentially not being collected at all if the shutdown persists. Matthew Martin of Oxford Economics noted that businesses are likely to adopt a cautious approach and reduce hiring until they see signs of rising demand or economic stabilization.
As the shutdown continues, the lack of data is becoming increasingly problematic. The Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, which depends on inflation and the jobs market, is also being hindered by the absence of reliable data. With no end to the shutdown in sight, the economic implications are likely to worsen, making it essential for policymakers to find a resolution to the impasse. The prolonged shutdown has significant implications for the US economy, and a swift resolution is necessary to mitigate its effects.