A recent assessment by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) warns that the world is still far from meeting the Paris Agreement goals, with global warming projections showing only marginal improvement despite new national pledges. The UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, states that full implementation of current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would result in a 2.3-2.5°C temperature rise by the end of the century, only slightly down from 2.6-2.8°C projected last year.

According to the report, the improvement in temperature projections is largely due to methodological updates rather than genuine emissions cuts. The upcoming withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement is expected to cancel out the marginal gains, underscoring the limited impact of new pledges. UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the world is now on the brink of surpassing the 1.5°C threshold within the next decade, with scientists predicting a temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees as early as the 2030s.

The report finds that only 60 Parties, representing 63 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, have submitted or announced NDCs with 2035 mitigation targets as of September 2025. However, most countries are not on track to meet their existing 2030 goals, widening the gap between pledges and implementation. To align with the Paris targets, emissions by 2030 must fall by 25 per cent for the 2°C pathway and 40 per cent for the 1.5°C pathway compared with 2019 levels. Yet, global emissions grew by 2.3 per cent in 2024, reaching 57.7 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent.

UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen emphasized that governments have repeatedly fallen short of their climate commitments, and that unprecedented emissions cuts are needed in an increasingly tight window. The report stresses that proven solutions already exist, including expanding renewable energy, tackling methane emissions, and supporting developing nations with finance and technology. The G20 nations, which account for 77 per cent of global emissions, are urged to lead the charge in reducing emissions and meeting the Paris Agreement goals.

The report’s findings highlight the urgent need for bolder leadership and cooperation ahead of COP30. With the world projected to exceed 1.5°C of warming for several decades, reversing the overshoot will demand massive, rapid emissions reductions and could require risky and costly carbon dioxide removal on an unprecedented scale. Limiting overshoot to about 0.3°C and returning to 1.5°C by 2100 remains technically possible, but only if 2030 emissions fall by 26 per cent and 2035 emissions by 46 per cent relative to 2019 levels.