The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that renewable energy is expanding faster than fossil fuels worldwide, even as U.S. policy shifts. In its annual World Energy Outlook, the agency projects that oil demand will peak around 2030. It presents several scenarios for the energy future, including one in which U.S. renewable capacity is 30 percent lower in 2035 due to policy changes. Despite this, global renewables continue to grow rapidly, led by solar photovoltaics.
The IEA’s findings come as world leaders gather for the UN’s COP30 climate conference in Brazil, an event the United States has chosen to skip. The agency has faced criticism from the Trump administration, which accused it of forecasting a decline in fossil‑fuel demand. To address differing outlooks, the IEA used three scenarios in its World Energy Outlook: a Current Policies Scenario, a Stated Policies Scenario, and a Net‑Zero‑by‑2050 Scenario.
Under the Current Policies Scenario, oil and natural‑gas demand would rise 16 percent by 2035 and keep increasing through 2050. In contrast, the Stated Policies Scenario predicts oil demand peaking around 2030 and falling to 100 million barrels per day by 2035. All scenarios show rising electricity demand, driven by data centers, artificial intelligence in advanced economies and China, and expanding air‑conditioning use in developing nations.
China remains the largest market for renewable energy in every scenario, accounting for 45 to 60 percent of global deployment over the next decade. However, the IEA warns that, under all scenarios, the world will exceed the 1.5 °C warming limit set by the 2015 Paris Agreement. The agency notes a waning momentum in national and international emissions‑reduction efforts despite growing climate risks.
Overall, the IEA’s report underscores a continued shift toward renewable energy, even amid U.S. policy changes. Its scenarios outline possible energy pathways and stress the need for sustained investment in renewables to mitigate climate change, reminding the world of the importance of transitioning to a low‑carbon economy.
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