Daniel Ayantoye examines the impact of the Labour Party’s performance during the 2023 presidential and National Assembly elections. The outcome of the presidential election was particularly intriguing, marked by unexpected developments that left many political analysts struggling to predict the winner. For the past 23 years, Nigeria’s political landscape has been primarily dominated by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and various factions of the All Progressives Congress (APC), while parties like the Labour Party (LP) were often regarded as mere participants. The LP’s most notable success prior to the 2023 election was when Dr. Olusegun Mimiko became the governor of Ondo State, serving two terms under its platform. Since its establishment in 2002, the LP has faced significant challenges in breaking the dominance of the APC and PDP, which have consistently shared power at the National Assembly, State Houses of Assembly, and governorship levels across the 36 states. The party had never come close to winning the presidency until the arrival of former Anambra State governor, Mr. Peter Obi, who joined the LP in May 2022 after leaving the PDP and withdrawing as a presidential aspirant. His entry revitalized the party, attracting a surge of supporters, particularly among the youth.
Obi’s departure from the PDP was marked by a letter to the party’s National Chairman, in which he expressed his honor in contributing to nation-building but cited recent developments within the PDP as a barrier to his continued participation. The LP’s popularity peaked when Obi emerged as its presidential candidate, following the withdrawal of other aspirants, including Prof. Pat Utomi. This led to the formation of a movement known as ‘Obidient.’ Despite the growing support for Obi and the LP, both online and offline, the dominant parties dismissed their chances in the election. APC spokesperson Festus Keyamo (SAN) asserted that the election was essentially a contest between the APC and PDP, emphasizing their established structures and widespread support. Similarly, Governor Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna State belittled Obi’s candidacy, labeling him a “Nollywood actor” and doubting his ability to secure votes in key regions.
As the election approached, the LP continued to gain traction, with its membership and social media presence expanding significantly. The ‘ObiDatti Movement,’ named after Obi and his running mate, Datti Baba-Ahmed, further solidified this momentum. In an interview, PDP presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar expressed skepticism about the LP’s potential to siphon votes from the PDP, citing the party’s lack of governance structures and previous electoral performances. He argued that despite claims of significant social media support, the reality on the ground, particularly in the North, was different, as many voters were not engaged with social media.
In the lead-up to the February 25 presidential and National Assembly elections, predicting the outcome became increasingly challenging for analysts, as support for the APC, PDP, and LP candidates surged. Although Obi did not win the presidency, his performance was remarkable, especially in regions traditionally dominated by the APC and PDP. The final results showed Tinubu of the APC receiving 8,794,726 votes, Atiku with 6,984,520 votes, and Obi garnering 6,101,533 votes. Notably, Obi won 11 states and the Federal Capital Territory, including a surprising victory in Lagos State, historically controlled by Tinubu and the APC. This outcome was considered phenomenal, given that the LP had managed to defeat the APC in a state where it had held power since 1999.
The LP’s influence extended beyond Lagos, as it made significant inroads in the North. For instance, the party won seven local government areas in Kaduna State and 23 in Benue State. In Abuja, Obi received 281,717 votes, far surpassing Tinubu’s 90,902 and Atiku’s 74,199. The LP also achieved victories in strongholds of the PDP, such as Delta State, where Obi secured 341,866 votes against the PDP’s 161,600 and the APC’s 90,183. Additionally, the LP candidate won in Cross River State, despite the incumbent being from the APC. Even in Anambra State, where the governor had predicted Obi’s defeat, the LP candidate triumphed over both the APC and PDP.
The Labour Party’s performance in the National Assembly elections was equally impressive, as it increased its representation from one senator to eight and from a single House of Representatives member to 22. Notable victories included Okechukwu Ezea defeating Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi in Enugu State and Ireti Kingibe unseating the incumbent senator Philip Aduda in the Federal Capital Territory. The LP also secured significant wins in Edo State and Lagos State, further demonstrating its growing influence.
Political analysts have reacted to the disruption caused by the LP, with some suggesting that the election marked a paradigm shift in Nigeria’s political landscape. Akindele Adetoye, a political science professor, noted that the emergence of the LP as a third force has strengthened democracy in the country, as more Nigerians, particularly the youth, become politically educated and engaged. He emphasized that the LP’s success in Lagos was indicative of a more sophisticated electorate willing to challenge traditional voting patterns.
Monday Ubani, Chairman of the Nigerian Bar Association Section on Public Interest and Development Law, remarked that Nigeria’s political landscape would never be the same again, highlighting the increased political consciousness among citizens. He pointed out that the LP’s emergence as a third force demonstrated a shift away from tribal and religious sentiments toward a more enlightened electorate. Professor Kamilu Fage echoed these sentiments, noting that the youth’s engagement with the LP could lead to significant changes in governance and development in Nigeria. He emphasized the importance of continued youth participation in politics, suggesting that their involvement could reshape the country’s political dynamics for the better.
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