OPEC+ Ministers Unlikely to Alter Oil Output Strategy at Upcoming Meeting

Ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied nations are set to convene for an online ministerial meeting on Sunday, where they are expected to maintain their current oil output strategy. This decision comes after key members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, surprised markets earlier this year by increasing production to unprecedented levels.

In recent months, eight major OPEC+ members have collectively boosted production by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day. This move aims to regain a larger share of the global oil market, which has been increasingly competitive due to producers in the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. Despite contributing to a supply glut that has weighed on crude prices and eroded some of the group’s profits, experts argue that a combination of other factors has offset these effects.

The 12-day Iran-Israel war, US sanctions on Russia’s oil sector, and China’s strategic oil reserve build-up have driven up demand for oil, stemming a sharp fall in prices. According to Kim Fustier, an analyst at HSBC, these unforeseen events have helped OPEC+’s output strategy to “generally work.” Fustier notes that “none of these factors could have been forecast on January 1st,” but they have ultimately benefited the group.

The return of Donald Trump to the White House has also influenced OPEC+’s decision to increase output. Trump’s call for Riyadh to boost production to bring down oil prices has been accommodated by Saudi Arabia, which has made aligning with US interests a key aspect of its diplomacy with Washington. In return, Trump has agreed to several requests from Riyadh, including a joint declaration on civil nuclear energy and access to advanced American-made AI systems.

The current price of Brent crude, hovering around $60-$65 per barrel, suits Trump’s interests, as it allows US producers to maintain profitability while keeping prices relatively low. Following a final increase in quotas in December, OPEC+ members have warned of a pause in production adjustments in the first quarter of 2026, citing weaker seasonal demand.

As a result, experts do not expect significant changes to emerge from the upcoming meeting. OPEC+ is likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach, avoiding any moves that could impact the ongoing negotiations on the war in Ukraine. A reduction in tensions could decrease the geopolitical risk premium driving up crude prices, while a deadlock would shift focus back to US sanctions against Russian oil giants. With these factors in play, OPEC+ is expected to maintain its current output strategy, prioritizing stability in the face of uncertainty.