Africa is poised for significant growth in its demand for refined energy products, with projections indicating a surge from approximately 4 million barrels per day in 2024 to over 6 million barrels per day by 2050. According to the African Energy Chamber’s 2026 Outlook Report, “The State of African Energy,” this increase will be driven by demographic and economic forces, including a growing population and rising GDP.
The report notes that Africa’s refined product demand will be fueled by population growth, industrialization, and urbanization, with the continent’s population expected to reach nearly 2.4 billion by 2050. This growth will lead to an increase in energy-intensive activities, with Africa’s GDP projected to nearly triple to around $7.8 trillion by 2050.
Despite representing 18% of the global population, Africa currently consumes less than 5% of the world’s oil products and contributes just 3% to global GDP. This disparity indicates significant untapped potential, with the report emphasizing that Africa’s oil demand will continue to grow beyond 2050.
The report highlights the need for investment in key areas such as refining capacity, trading networks, and the adoption of cleaner fuels to meet the continent’s growing energy needs. It also notes that Africa is poised to become the primary driver of worldwide gasoline demand growth over the long term, with Nigeria and emerging markets at the forefront.
In addition to gasoline, diesel/gasoil consumption is expected to increase by about 880,000 barrels per day by 2050, driven by the extractive industries and investments in critical minerals. Aviation fuels are also expected to experience a strong rebound, with demand projected to surpass pre-COVID levels in 2025.
The report also identifies liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) as a cleaner cooking solution with significant untapped potential, offering health and environmental benefits as well as a means of reducing emissions. However, LPG use remains low, and the report notes that regulatory frameworks, consumer financing plans, and distribution networks in rural and low-income areas need development to unlock demand.
To meet Africa’s growing energy needs, the report emphasizes the need for proactive planning, including over $20 billion in downstream infrastructure investment by 2050. Flagship projects such as Nigeria’s Dangote refinery are vital, but smaller initiatives will also be necessary to bridge the gap. Ultimately, the report suggests that Africa’s energy future is one of tremendous growth, and policymakers, investors, and international partners must prioritize efficient trading, local refining, and a transition to cleaner fuels to maximize value for the continent’s growing population.