The Federal Executive Council has approved Nigeria’s 2026-2028 medium-term expenditure framework, outlining the country’s economic outlook, revenue targets, and spending priorities for the next three years. The framework, which was approved on Wednesday in Abuja, projects a cautious approach to the country’s economic development.

According to the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu, the framework assumes an oil price of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of 1,512/$. The oil production benchmark is set at 2.06 million barrels per day, although fiscal planning is based on a more conservative 1.8 million bpd. The exchange rate projection takes into account the fact that 2026 precedes a general election year, with all assumptions drawn from detailed macroeconomic and fiscal analyses.

The framework projects inflation to average 18 percent in 2026, with total revenue accruing to the federation estimated at N50.74 trillion. The federal government is expected to receive 22.6 trillion, while states and local governments will receive 16.3 trillion and 11.85 trillion, respectively. The total federal government revenue for 2026 is projected at 34.33 trillion, representing a 16 percent decline compared to the 2025 budget estimate.

Statutory transfers are expected to amount to roughly 3 trillion, while debt servicing is projected at 10.91 trillion. Non-debt recurrent spending, covering personnel costs and overheads, is put at 15.27 trillion. The fiscal deficit for 2026 is estimated at N20.1 trillion, representing 3.61 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

The medium-term expenditure framework also projects that nominal GDP will reach over 690 trillion in 2026 and climb to N890.6 trillion by 2028, with the GDP growth rate projected at 4.6 percent in 2026. The non-oil GDP is expected to grow from 550.7 trillion in 2026 to 871.3 trillion in 2028, while oil GDP is estimated to rise from 557.4 trillion to 893.5 trillion over the same period.

The approval of the medium-term expenditure framework provides a roadmap for Nigeria’s economic development over the next three years, with a focus on cautious fiscal planning and a commitment to improving the country’s economic outlook. The framework will serve as a guide for the country’s economic policy and decision-making, as it navigates the challenges and opportunities of the next three years.