The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has commended the Federal Government of Nigeria for adopting more conservative and credible assumptions in the newly released 2026-2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF). The CPPE described the MTEF as a “welcome shift toward fiscal realism,” responding to global economic uncertainties, Nigeria’s recurring revenue shortfalls, and persistent challenges in crude oil production.
The organization noted that one of the biggest weaknesses of Nigeria’s budgeting process has been chronic revenue underperformance driven by overly ambitious macroeconomic projections. The 2025 budget suffered from unrealistic assumptions, leading to implementation failures and weakening public confidence. The shift to more realistic forecasts in the 2026-2028 MTEF is seen as an important step toward restoring credibility to the national budget.
The CPPE welcomed the adoption of dual oil production parameters, with 2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd) as the technical target and 1.80 mbpd as the budget benchmark. However, it argued that the benchmark remains slightly optimistic given years of underproduction, theft, vandalism, and operational constraints. The organization recommended a more conservative benchmark of 1.6 mbpd.
The 2026 oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel was acknowledged as more cautious than the $75 projected for 2025. However, the CPPE warned that it still exceeds global forecasts from the EIA, Goldman Sachs, and the World Bank, which range from $55 to $60. The proposed exchange rate of N1,540/$ for 2026 was described as a realistic reflection of likely foreign exchange pressures, especially with the 2026 election cycle approaching.
The CPPE commended the downward adjustment of the 2026 revenue projection to N34.33 trillion, a 16 percent reduction from the previous year’s estimate, demonstrating improved fiscal prudence. However, the organization warned that debt sustainability remains a major concern, with N15.91 trillion allocated to debt servicing in 2026, representing 46 percent of projected revenue.
The CPPE criticized the delayed submission of the MTEF to the National Assembly, noting that the Fiscal Responsibility Act requires it to be submitted at least four months before the new fiscal year. The organization urged lawmakers to ensure fiscal discipline by rejecting attempts to inflate expenditure or introduce unrealistic revenue assumptions during deliberations.
The 2026-2028 MTEF is seen as a positive step toward fiscal stability, but the CPPE stressed that deeper reforms are still required to entrench fiscal stability and rebuild public trust. The organization called for sustained commitment to transparent fiscal planning, efficient public spending, and realistic macroeconomic assumptions. As the National Assembly deliberates on the MTEF, the CPPE’s recommendations are likely to play a significant role in shaping Nigeria’s fiscal future.
