The UK is expected to experience sluggish economic growth, trailing most G7 nations, according to a recent analysis by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). The think tank’s World Economic League Table predicts that the UK will fall from 19th to 22nd in global GDP per capita rankings by 2030, surpassed by countries such as Hong Kong, Finland, and the UAE. By 2035, British living standards are forecast to decline further, falling behind those of Malta.

The CEBR report attributes this decline to high inflation and low growth, which will continue to erode living standards in the UK. The country’s GDP per capita growth is expected to be the second-weakest in the G7 over the next five years, with only Japan faring worse. In dollar terms, UK GDP per capita is projected to reach $58,775 next year.

CEBR economist Pushpin Singh cites a “triple challenge” facing the UK, consisting of high inflation, high debt, and low growth. The country’s competitiveness is being undermined by rival nations with lower taxes and lighter regulation, while the UK struggles to reduce state spending. The report notes that the UK’s economy grew by only 1.4% in 2025, with an average annual growth rate of around 1.5% projected for the coming years.

The Labour government, which marked its first full year in office in 2025, has achieved limited success in boosting growth, according to the report. The outlook remains uncertain, with Singh warning that Britain is “still very much living off its past glories.” The ongoing cost-of-living crisis continues to affect British households, with real disposable income per head yet to recover to its pre-pandemic level.

The CEBR’s forecast highlights the need for the UK to address its economic challenges and improve its competitiveness to avoid falling further behind its peers. With the country’s economic growth expected to remain sluggish, policymakers will need to consider strategies to boost growth and improve living standards. As the UK navigates these challenges, its position in the global economy is likely to be closely watched by international observers.