The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has assured consumers that the ongoing price competition in the downstream petroleum sector will ultimately benefit them. According to the Group Chief Executive Officer, Bayo Ojulari, the current market tensions are a natural consequence of Nigeria’s transition from total import dependence to domestic refining.
Ojulari made these remarks after briefing President Bola Tinubu in Lagos, against the backdrop of an intense price war that has seen petrol prices drop from over N1,200 per litre in November 2024 to as low as N739 per litre at some retail outlets in December 2025. The price reduction is primarily driven by competition between Dangote Refinery, NNPCL, and independent marketers.
The NNPCL boss clarified that the company is no longer responsible for petroleum product pricing or regulation under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). The PIA divided the roles of regulation from business, with the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) responsible for downstream regulation and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) responsible for upstream regulations.
Ojulari emphasized that NNPCL has been instituted by the PIA to become a commercial company, which means it needs to compete profitably and be successful. The company no longer receives federation allocations and must raise finance independently.
The downstream petroleum sector has been gripped by fierce competition since September 2024, when Dangote Refinery began producing petrol locally. The average retail price of Premium Motor Spirit fell by N153 per litre between November 2024 and November 2025, driven by supply improvements and stronger competition.
Ojulari acknowledged that having major refineries like Dangote and NNPC’s rehabilitated facilities operating simultaneously has disrupted market equilibrium. However, he believes that the additional production will create more flexibility in terms of ability for downstream players to participate effectively.
The NNPCL aims to achieve at least 1.8 million barrels per day in 2026, stepping towards President Tinubu’s target of 2 million barrels per day by 2027 and attracting over $30 billion in additional investment by 2030. The company has also successfully completed welding of the main line of the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano gas pipeline, which will bring gas to northern Nigeria for industrialization, fertilizer plants, and power generation when commissioned in early 2026.
In the long run, the price competition is expected to stabilize, and consumers are likely to benefit from the increased production and supply of petroleum products. The NNPCL’s focus on generating more production and ensuring product availability will play a crucial role in shaping the future of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.