Nigeria economy growth forecast 4.4% in 2026 and 2027

The World Bank has forecast Nigeria’s economy to grow at a rate of 4.4% in both 2026 and 2027, marking the country’s fastest growth pace in over a decade. This projection is according to the Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report released in January 2026. The upgrade in Nigeria’s 2026 growth estimate from 3.7% to 4.4% reflects sustained optimism about the country’s medium-term outlook, despite lingering structural challenges.

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.46% year-on-year in real terms during the third quarter of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The World Bank attributes the expected expansion to sustained growth in the services sector, a rebound in agricultural production, and a modest acceleration in non-oil industrial activities. Continued expansion in services and improved agricultural output are expected to remain key pillars supporting economic performance over the forecast period.

The Bank notes that ongoing economic reforms, particularly in the tax system, combined with prudent monetary policy, are expected to support economic activity and strengthen macroeconomic stability. These policy measures are anticipated to improve investor sentiment and reduce inflation further. Higher oil output is expected to offset lower international oil prices, helping to boost fiscal revenues and strengthen the external balance.

The emphasis on non-oil growth highlights the gradual impact of Nigeria’s economic diversification efforts aimed at reducing reliance on crude oil exports. A stronger services sector and improved agricultural output could help create jobs, stabilize prices, and broaden the government’s revenue base over time. For investors and policymakers, the World Bank’s forecast provides a measure of confidence that recent reforms may begin to yield tangible results.

In the broader context, the World Bank expects growth in Sub-Saharan Africa to strengthen to 4.3% in 2026, supported by economic reforms, resilient domestic investment, and easing inflation across the region. Globally, the Bank forecasts economies to remain resilient, with growth easing slightly to 2.6% in 2026 before rising to 2.7% in 2027. The improved global outlook reflects moderating inflation, stabilizing financial conditions, and stronger-than-expected performance in several emerging and developing economies.