The 2027 general election in Nigeria is expected to be a highly competitive contest, with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) gaining dominance in key states. The party, led by President Bola Tinubu, has been expanding its reach, particularly in densely populated regions. In contrast, the opposition is facing internal divisions and defections, weakening their chances of winning.
The African Democratic Congress (ADC), a coalition of opposition leaders, was formed to challenge President Tinubu’s re-election bid. However, the party is currently facing significant hurdles, including disagreements among its prominent members over who should be the presidential candidate. The party’s supporters are divided, with some advocating for the ticket to be zoned to the South.
The opposition’s struggles have been exacerbated by the defection of key party stalwarts to the ruling party. Since 2025, several state governors, lawmakers, and local government chairmen have joined the APC, depleting the opposition’s ranks. As of May 2023, the APC controlled 21 states, while the opposition had 15. Currently, the ruling party has 29 governors, leaving the opposition with just seven states.
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) controls five states, while the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Labour Party (LP), and Accord Party (AP) each have one. The recent defection of Kano State Governor Abba Yusuf from the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) to the APC has significant implications for the 2027 election. Kano is a crucial state with nearly six million registered voters, and the APC’s gain may impact the election outcome.
The ADC is facing internal crisis, with disagreements among its prominent members, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Governor Peter Obi, and former Governor Rotimi Amaechi. The party’s success in the coming election is threatened by these divisions, as well as a faction led by Nafiu Gombe. According to a party chieftain, the Tinubu administration has deliberately weakened the opposition, leading to defections and internal conflicts.
The outcome of the 2027 election remains uncertain, with the opposition facing significant challenges. The ADC’s ability to unite behind a single candidate and overcome its internal divisions will be crucial in determining the party’s success. As the election approaches, the ruling party’s continued dominance and the opposition’s struggles will be closely watched by Nigerians and international observers alike.
