Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery fell short of its domestic petrol supply target in January 2026, delivering an average of 40.1 million litres per day against a projected 50 million, according to official data. However, the facility simultaneously surpassed imported fuel volumes for the first time in over a year, marking a pivotal shift in the country’s petroleum market.
Figures from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) revealed the 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery accounted for 61.78 percent of Nigeria’s total premium motor spirit (PMS) supply during the month. Its average daily output of 40.1 million litres represented a shortfall of 9.9 million litres from its internal benchmark. Imported products averaged 24.8 million litres daily, constituting the remaining 38.22 percent of supply.
Overall national petrol supply averaged 64.9 million litres per day in January, while consumption stood at 60.2 million litres, indicating a supply surplus. The refinery’s performance means it now supplies more than half of the nation’s fuel, a significant milestone since commercial operations began in 2023. The facility was designed to reduce Nigeria’s longstanding reliance on imports and stabilise local fuel markets.
This dual outcome—missing an operational target while outproducing imports—highlights the complex ramp-up phase of Africa’s largest refinery. The shortfall suggests ongoing optimisation challenges in production or distribution logistics. Yet, achieving a majority share of domestic supply underscores its transformative potential for Nigeria’s energy security.
The NMDPRA’s monthly reports will continue to track the refinery’s output against national demand. Sustained increases in local production could further diminish import dependence, affecting foreign exchange expenditure and fuel pricing dynamics. The January data signals progress in that direction, even as the refinery works to meet its full domestic supply projection.
