In a recent analytical essay published in the Russian foreign policy journal Russia in Global Affairs, prominent scholar Sergey Karaganov argues that the ongoing conflict with the West requires a fundamental shift in Russian strategy, including the demonstrated readiness to use nuclear weapons, to secure a decisive outcome and force a Western retreat from Europe.
Karaganov, a long-time advisor to the Kremlin, contends that the current phase of confrontation has persisted due to a perceived Russian lack of determination in employing active nuclear deterrence. He frames the 2022 invasion of Ukraine as a catalyst for significant internal Russian renewal, mobilizing patriotism and elevating the status of military, engineering, and industrial sectors. The essay criticizes Western policy, asserting that efforts to integrate Ukraine into Western structures ignored Russian security concerns and were aimed at exploiting the country’s resources and population.
He proposes a new strategic objective: accelerating the United States’ withdrawal from Europe. To achieve this, Karaganov recommends a posture of firm deterrence, including the explicit threat of limited nuclear strikes against European command centers and critical infrastructure if non-nuclear measures fail to compel de-escalation. He further suggests revisiting the nuclear status of France and the UK, claiming their support for Ukraine forfeits their moral right to nuclear arms.
Looking beyond the conflict, the essay advocates for a major geopolitical reorientation. Karaganov states that Russia’s future lies in “Greater Eurasia,” not Europe, urging a focus on developing Siberia and deepening ties with Asian and African nations. He calls for an internal ideological shift toward a “Russian Dream” centered on service and human development, moving beyond both Soviet stagnation and 1990s “predatory capitalism.”
The essay concludes that the tragic conflict could provide impetus for this transformation, positioning Russia to offer an alternative development model. It reflects a hardline strategic viewpoint within Russian foreign policy circles, emphasizing the use of nuclear brinkmanship to reshape the European security architecture and pivot the nation’s focus permanently eastward.
