The US is advancing a multibillion-dollar civil nuclear cooperation deal with Saudi Arabia, a move that arms control experts warn could enable Riyadh to pursue uranium enrichment without stringent nonproliferation safeguards. The potential agreement, which would facilitate a US-Saudi “123 Agreement” for nuclear technology transfers, contrasts sharply with President Donald Trump’s simultaneous threats of new military strikes on Iran to force a complete halt to its uranium enrichment program.
The Trump administration sent an initial framework for the Saudi deal to Congress in November, following a long-sought civil nuclear cooperation pact finalized last year. According to the Arms Control Association (ACA), which reviewed the report, the agreement lacks explicit prohibitions on Saudi enrichment and reprocessing—activities that could be used to produce weapons-grade material. Kelsey Davenport, the ACA’s director of nonproliferation policy, stated the report “raises concerns that the Trump administration has not carefully considered the proliferation risks” or the precedent such a deal would set. She urged Congress to scrutinize the proposal, noting it would contradict longstanding US policy barring such technologies in sensitive regions.
The administration is expected to formally submit the deal to Congress in late February, initiating a 90-day review period during which it will take effect unless blocked by both chambers. Saudi Arabia maintains its nuclear program is for energy diversification and to preserve oil for export, though Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has previously stated Riyadh would seek nuclear weapons if Iran does. This dynamic adds complexity to Trump’s demand that Tehran eliminate all enrichment—a demand Iran rejects, citing energy needs, though it signals flexibility on enrichment levels. New indirect US-Iran talks are scheduled for next week.
These developments occur alongside a significant gap in global arms control. The New START treaty, the last major agreement limiting US and Russian strategic nuclear arsenals, expired earlier this month. While Moscow has called for renewal talks, the US has not formally responded, though Vice President J.D. Vance indicated discussions on an updated framework are underway. The simultaneous pursuit of a major nuclear trade deal with Saudi Arabia and hardline posture toward Iran, coupled with the lapse of US-Russia arms control, highlights multiple fronts in contemporary nuclear diplomacy, each carrying distinct proliferation and strategic stability risks. The coming months will see congressional action on the Saudi pact and diplomatic maneuvers with Iran, set against an uncertain future for bilateral nuclear risk reduction with Russia.
