Nigeria’s business confidence reached a historic high in February 2026, according to the latest Business Confidence Index (BCI) from the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG). The index surged to 117.2 points from 105.8 in January, marking the strongest reading since the survey’s inception and indicating broad-based economic expansion.
The Current Business Performance Index, which assesses ongoing economic conditions, reflected significantly improved business conditions nationwide. The non-manufacturing sector led the growth, rising to 128.9 points. Manufacturing activity increased to 121.1 points, driven by gains in food, beverages, and chemicals. The services sector climbed to 109.2 points on the back of stronger performance in finance, telecommunications, and real estate. Trade activity rebounded robustly to 108.7 points after a sluggish start to the year, while agriculture returned to expansion territory at 104.8 points.
Looking ahead, the Future Business Expectation Index—measuring optimism for the next three to six months—rose substantially to 135.5 points from 124.7. Firms in manufacturing and trade expressed particularly strong outlooks for future activity.
The record confidence aligns with other indicators of recovery, such as a rebound in the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), suggesting renewed dynamism in the private sector. Analysts attribute the upswing to strengthening demand, improved operational performance, and increased activity across production and services.
However, firms continue to cite persistent structural challenges. Infrastructure deficits, security concerns, limited access to affordable financing, and high operational costs remain constraints, particularly for manufacturing and agriculture.
The positive trend contrasts with recent economic hardship. In 2023, the World Bank reported rising poverty in Nigeria, with inflation and currency depreciation severely impacting household purchasing power. Yet, current business sentiment suggests a shift, with companies increasingly optimistic about sustained growth.
The NESG report underscores a potential inflection point, though it cautions that addressing long-standing bottlenecks is crucial for translating confidence into inclusive, long-term economic recovery.
