In Oyo State, political trends are often as predictable as the town’s temperature. In the lead‑up to the 2011 and 2015 presidential elections, the names Goodluck Jonathan and Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd) dominated conversation, and their victories were unsurprising. Ahead of Saturday’s governorship election, the name on everyone’s lips is Seyi Makinde—just as Asiwaju Bola Tinubu’s name filled the air two weeks earlier during the presidential poll. If you doubt the mood, a ride in a tricycle, taxi or motorbike will reveal an electorate electrified by Makinde’s re‑election bid, making one wonder whether any serious opposition remains.
Some of the other candidates, though vocal about potential defeat, still harbour political ambitions. Their futures, however, hinge on avoiding disgraceful conduct that could consign them to oblivion. Media reports suggest that the main opposition camp is in disarray, with certain presidential support groups now backing Makinde. This shift reflects the Oyo people’s clear sense of who they want as governor—a leader who currently commands authority in Agodi. A rabble‑rousing warlord may rally a mob through force, but he cannot displace a record‑setting, methodical, humble, and humane governor who has lifted the populace from despondency into hope. Oyo voters despise empty‑brained warmongers and political buccaneers.
Members of Southern for Tinubu BAT Democracy, the Yoruba Campaign for BAT, and the Tinubu Campaign Movement are not merely making noise; their support for Makinde is grounded in reality. They have publicly praised his outstanding performance and rejected mediocrity. As National Coordinator Adebayo Moronsole and PR/Strategy Director Emmanuel Adesanya explained, “Our grassroots mobilisers are now on a house‑to‑house campaign for the re‑election of the governor. We have enjoyed many good works by Makinde’s administration, including peace and security in the state.”
The Omituntun Initiative in the Diaspora—comprising Nigerian professionals across the United States, United Kingdom, France, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, China, Malaysia, Brazil, Ireland, Germany, Israel, Hungary, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Botswana, Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa and others—has also voiced strong support. In a statement signed by spokesman Ayotomiwa Adebayo, the group lauded Makinde as a dynamic, creative leader whose administration has delivered record‑breaking results in education, health, infrastructure, security, and agribusiness‑driven economic expansion. They noted that Oyo State now enjoys unprecedented economic growth and a generational shift from poor to good governance, underscoring the viability of “Omituntun 2.0,” a sustainable socio‑economic agenda for Makinde’s second term. Adebayo warned that Oyo’s professionals, unionists, pensioners, civil servants, teachers, students, farmers, artisans, youths and traders will no longer tolerate greedy political godfathers and their accomplices.
Those unfamiliar with Oyo’s political dynamics might wonder why Teslim Folarin—whose party recently secured three Senate seats and nine House seats—fails to lead in Saturday’s poll. The reality is that the party’s recent gains stem largely from the bandwagon effect of electing a president from their ranks, not from genuine support for an alternative to Makinde. After eight years of northern rule, Oyo voters preferred a southern president, a sentiment amplified by the terror inflicted by herdsmen across Oodualand. Consequently, the February 25 poll does not signal a shift away from Makinde.
The opposition now finds itself in the same predicament that the Peoples Democratic Party and Labour Party faced before the presidential and National Assembly elections. Had the PDP united behind Peter Obi, it could have achieved a historic landslide. With the All Progressives Congress fractured into Adebayo Adelabu’s Accord Party and Folarin’s APC, the field is cleared for Makinde to sweep the governorship. A similar pattern emerged in 2015 when Buhari won Oyo with 528,620 votes over Jonathan’s 303,376, yet the incumbent governor, Abiola Ajimobi, retained his seat, defeating former governors Rashidi Ladoja (Accord), Adebayo Alao‑Akala (Labour), Folarin (PDP) and Makinde (SDP). Today, Makinde enjoys far broader popular backing than Ajimobi did, promising a more comprehensive victory.
In 2019, Makinde won 28 of the state’s local government areas, while Adelabu (APC) captured only five. With his proven record, he is poised to outpace any rival. He is widely regarded as Nigeria’s first “Deserving Authority.” It is unrealistic to expect students—who revived Gani Fawehinmi’s Senior Advocate of Masses legacy—and teachers and pensioners, who receive salaries on the 25th, to abandon a governor who resolved the long‑standing LAUTECH crisis in favor of political pirates. Moreover, Makinde enjoys support from the majority of the 18 political parties and from non‑partisan individuals, further brightening his prospects.
An interesting facet of this contest is that many politicians across parties, eyeing the governorship in four years, appear more comfortable with Makinde’s term ending in 2027. A new governor would likely thwart their ambitions, a fact they all recognize.
*Abdul Rasaq writes this piece from Oke Bola, Ibadan.*
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